You have to wonder about predictions of doom based on conditions that have been in place for the past 20 years. There seem to be no new reasons for Apple to be doomed, just the same old reasons that were used as past predictions of doom. If Apple is doomed (in the short run), we cannot have much confidence it is for any of the reasons offered so far.

As its ‘share’ of internet usage increases, so has the number of developers, particularly for OS X. The move to OS X drew in a lot of developers for platforms like Sun and Silicon Graphics as BeOS and NextStep. Not a lot of people there, relative to the Windows developer community, or even the Mac developer community, but high powered people for the most part.

OS X also has support in the Open Source developer community that is better than support for Windows. Increasingly this will be a factor in the ‘ecosystem’.

I think the trends are pretty clear … with respect to share of internet activity Windows is starting to slip ever so slightly ( if we accept the W3C stats with some confidence) over the past two years (3.5%), and Linux and Macintosh are increasing at a good pace. On the Linux front the main dark cloud is the SCO affair, and this will probably evaporate as an issue this year. On the Mac front the big question is whether Jobs can subsume his ego long enough to get a successor in who can beat off the suits if he should decide to step down … it was a suit invasion that almost killed Apple in the 1990s, and would do so again.

But in the end it will be Linux and not Apple that forces Microsoft into a OS niche market position (though they will still be a big big player in other software). But wider Linux adoption will also increase Apple market share since acceptance of Linux as an option voids most of the arguments against Mac OS X in principle.

From a developer’s POV, most of my developer colleagues that worked with Apple, found them to be incredibly arrogant. IMO, it has always been this fatal flaw that would eventually seal their doom. Whether there is evidence to support that feeling is another story of course.

John takes a set of figures that demonstrates over a 22 month period a 3.5% decline in MS Windows usage against a 41% increase for Linux OS, and a 50% increase for Mac OS over the same period. From this manages to write an article about the Macintosh being in decline.

From these figures I can imagine more obvious headlines … W3C statistics show that Windows share of Internet activity has dropped below 90% of total, … or perhaps Linux Internet activity rose by 15% in 2004, or even … Macintosh Internet usage continues to rise strongly in 2004 while Internet adds over 100 million users.

The W3C statistics, taken as a whole argue against almost all the conclusions Dvorak draws from them, from his first sentence (“The Mac platform is essentially stagnant.”) to his simplicity/complexity argument. If he wanted to get his pro-Windows message out he could have managed within the figures … Rate of growth of Linux and Macintosh internet activity slows in 2004, or Windows manages to retain nearly 90% of internet activity despite growth by Linux and Macintosh.

The only declining platform here is Windows. Perhaps complexity is not the tonic Dvorak thinks.

I don’t really care how many people buy a Mac as long as it is enough to keep Apple in business and the developer community vibrant. At least till something better comes along. And it will. Perhaps even from Microsoft if they can ever finish Windows.

And that’s only one of the moves Apple has made:

Moving into the server/RAID/SAN market: Final Cut Pro et al for movie production (Cold Mountain, etc). Logic Pro music software.

The are positioned by more than just the iPod/iTunes (and it is the combination of the two that makes it so tuff for “iPod killers”) for a graceful exit from desktop computers.

If they ever get a G5 laptop working, they can probably just live off Powerbooks, iMacs, Xserve, and video/music software.

Mike

Mac-user (at home). PC-user (at work).

I “switched” a month ago to a new iBook G4. If I had ordered my 512KB RAM upgrade from Apple, it would have cost $300! Sheesh! Mr. Jobs does appear out of touch on the hardware scene.

Networking to my WinME box should have been a little easier. Well, actually, I’m embarassed to say, my only (but extremely frustrating) hitch was having left free ZoneAlarm running in silent mode, but Apple really should have put a heads-up in the manual about that.

Thunderbird and Firefox files & databases worked with MozillaMac easily. If I ever need to get into my older (and huge) Eudora email archives, I’ll probably pony up for EudoraMac — anyway I sorta feel I owe it to them after freeloading for so many years on the excellent 3.5.3 Personal Edition.

In only 4 weeks, I think I have encouraged several converts just tappin’ and chattin’ at Starbucks (no dates scored yet, but some professional networking opp’s). If Mr. Jobs gets a little more focused on Mac (and absorbs your article), I wouldn’t be surprised if that W3C measure proves to be a curve that just hit bottom.

My gut feeling is disagreement, but that does not mean I am right. Though, I’m still waiting for that 3GHz G5 milestone, like many others I would think.

stag·nant
adj.

1. Not moving or flowing; motionless.
2. Foul or stale from standing: stagnant ponds.
3.
a. Showing little or no sign of activity or advancement; not developing or progressing; inactive: a stagnant economy.
b. Lacking vitality or briskness; sluggish or dull: a stagnant mind.

To my mind, it is Microsoft and the PC market that is stagnant. Office97, Office2000, OfficeXP and Office2003 are essentially the same thing if all you need is to write a letter and spellcheck it, and do some home accounts.

My PowerBook does not have a LED to indicate hard-drive activity, but my ThinkPad does. I really don’t care either way. I have better things to do with my day than stare at blinking lights. If my hard-drive fails I’ll know about it and I won’t need a LED.

My ThinkPad has a ThinkPad button which I have never used. Would IBM have sold its PC business if the market was not stagnant? Or perhaps IBM just can’t compete? When did IBM get out of the typewriter business? In late 1960 an IBM typewriter salesman could make over $100,000 a year (I read it on the internet so it must be true). I guess the market for typewriters got stagnant or something.

I think Apple is misunderstood, not stagnant (except in the current CPU line up which is only a component of the platform, not the platform in its entirety).

A brainy person once said “things should be simple, but no simpler”. He didn’t say anything about requiring market share enabling advancement. In fact, Apple are probably in a better position to advance the Mac platform because they have a small market share. Microsoft has a huge market share and is having problems advancing the Windows platform (Longhorn is testament to that).

So unless I misunderstand your initial statement, I fail to see why the Mac is singled out from the computer market as being stagnant. It at the very least also implies that the high-end PC market is also stagnant.

The Mac platform is essentially irrelevant, I don’t know why people even bother writing about it in the 21st century.

The Mac crashes less and seems much better with audio and video software (what I use it mostly for) but I get SUPER frustrated with the Mac at times — if the Mac doesn’t do what I like, I’m usually outta luck.

With the PC, there usually is a work-around.

Uh, huh. Now where I have I heard this before?

When it comes to laptops the story just gets worse. The so-called powerbooks (I own one) are a complete joke compared to PC based laptops. HP offers Athlon64 notebooks for less than $1600. My dell latitude D600 blows the doors of my powerbook and they cost the same but the Dell has more RAM, bigger HD, and faster DVD burner.

When it comes to spyware and viruses the Mac users do have an advantage. However, that advantage is not the result of an inherently better OS. It is simply the result of popularity. Who is going to write a virus or spyware for 3% of the market?

Regarding patches, I have spent plenty of time installing a variety of patches and upgrades to OS-X. In case you haven’t checked. The latest verion is 10.3.7 and 10.3.8 is right around the corner. Not to mention the countless security updates I have had to install over the last year.

Both platforms have merit. Unfortunately I think the Mac is headed for the graveyard unless Steve Jobs changes his strategy. Apple is now making more money selling IPods than computers. That ought to scare the hell out of Mac enthusiasts.

OK, from now on I’ll do that–unless the element of irony (as in misspelling “quality” in a discussion of quality control) just overwhelms me. My comment wasn’t so much about a typo as it was about the irony of the typo, and I KNOW you can appreciate irony! Unintentional humor is often a result of “the law of unintended consequences”.

In the end, this argument becomes about hardware versus Software. In the beginning, the original IBM PC development team somehow never managed to copyright protect their BIOS, which meant that anybody could build a PC. Conversely, Bill Gates took someone else’s DOS system, copyrighted it and built Windows on top and around it. PC Hardware became commoditized and now expires faster than unpasteurized milk on the shelf (especially when connected to a cable/DSL connection). Software became the cash cow.

Apple has never realized that hardware is just a commodity. Its success (or lack thereof) has been the integration of both hardware and software. For my $300 premium (over the price of a PC), I get to enjoy my computing experience, speak with an English speaking tech support person (without staying on hold for 5 hours) and spend more time with my kids instead of running SP2 updates, managing my firewall, downloading new browsers, virus definitions and spyware scans.

Is it worth it? You bet. I just wish my family would stop calling me for advice on fixing their PC’s.