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	<title>Comments on: The Solid-State Lighting revolution is coming!</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/</link>
	<description>General interest observations and true web-log.</description>
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		<title>By: Roy</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-2/#comment-1587791</link>
		<dc:creator>Roy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Oct 2009 20:03:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-1587791</guid>
		<description>LED lighting products are limited in selection and availability and the cost is so high that they can only be justified for applications where the lighting is on 50 hours/week or more or where service is prohibitively expensive or inconvenient (some products require 100 hours/week usage before they can be economically justified). LED lighting (and other solid state lighting products) will not be practical for general home use until prices drop about 75% from current levels, and it will probably take a 90% drop before they take over the lions share of the lighting market. I would like to replace some of my lighting with LED products now or use LED lighting in any future remodeling, but it just can not be justified and/or the products I want don&#039;t exist yet. I expect to see a better selection at more competitive prices by 2015 to 2020, but probably not sooner than that. I would love to be surprised, but new technologies have always (in my experience) taken much longer to reach the broad retail market than any early predictions. On the other hand, when the technology finally is ready it could take over the lions share of the market in a very short time. Teenagers in 2050 might not see an incandescent bulb without visiting a museum.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LED lighting products are limited in selection and availability and the cost is so high that they can only be justified for applications where the lighting is on 50 hours/week or more or where service is prohibitively expensive or inconvenient (some products require 100 hours/week usage before they can be economically justified). LED lighting (and other solid state lighting products) will not be practical for general home use until prices drop about 75% from current levels, and it will probably take a 90% drop before they take over the lions share of the lighting market. I would like to replace some of my lighting with LED products now or use LED lighting in any future remodeling, but it just can not be justified and/or the products I want don&#8217;t exist yet. I expect to see a better selection at more competitive prices by 2015 to 2020, but probably not sooner than that. I would love to be surprised, but new technologies have always (in my experience) taken much longer to reach the broad retail market than any early predictions. On the other hand, when the technology finally is ready it could take over the lions share of the market in a very short time. Teenagers in 2050 might not see an incandescent bulb without visiting a museum.</p>
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		<title>By: Stevenj</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-2/#comment-664860</link>
		<dc:creator>Stevenj</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Jun 2007 17:54:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-664860</guid>
		<description>This is more of a general post, but we&#039;ve tested Light Beam&#039;s 5 watt solid state illuminators and it puts out more than 500 lumens, which is quite impressive.  It also comes with a dimmer, so it&#039;s easily controllable.  We tested it with Lumenytes solid core fiber and we were able to light more than 175 ft. with what appeared to be little to no light loss.

http://www.lightbeaminc.com

My point is, ther are definitely technologies out there coming that can reduce CFL usage, utlize the power of LED&#039;s and help reduce emissions at the same time.

sj</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is more of a general post, but we&#8217;ve tested Light Beam&#8217;s 5 watt solid state illuminators and it puts out more than 500 lumens, which is quite impressive.  It also comes with a dimmer, so it&#8217;s easily controllable.  We tested it with Lumenytes solid core fiber and we were able to light more than 175 ft. with what appeared to be little to no light loss.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.lightbeaminc.com" rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"></a><a href='http://www.lightbeaminc.com' rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.lightbeaminc.com</a></p>
<p>My point is, ther are definitely technologies out there coming that can reduce CFL usage, utlize the power of LED&#8217;s and help reduce emissions at the same time.</p>
<p>sj</p>
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		<title>By: Mark Derail</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-2/#comment-661203</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark Derail</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Jun 2007 13:10:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-661203</guid>
		<description>#28 use CageMatch, the fun-to-use Dvorak forum
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#28 use CageMatch, the fun-to-use Dvorak forum</p>
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		<title>By: pedro</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-2/#comment-661178</link>
		<dc:creator>pedro</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Jun 2007 12:34:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-661178</guid>
		<description>A yaer and a half ago, I ordered a sample of some EL tape light (white) like the one Smartalix is holding in his first pic. I oerdered it after watching it being used in one of this &quot;while you were out&quot; kinda tv show. Not impressed.

Only useful for mood lighting. In fact, here&#039;s used by some movie theatres for stair ledges inside the theatres when lights are out.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A yaer and a half ago, I ordered a sample of some EL tape light (white) like the one Smartalix is holding in his first pic. I oerdered it after watching it being used in one of this &#8220;while you were out&#8221; kinda tv show. Not impressed.</p>
<p>Only useful for mood lighting. In fact, here&#8217;s used by some movie theatres for stair ledges inside the theatres when lights are out.</p>
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		<title>By: raddad</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-2/#comment-661033</link>
		<dc:creator>raddad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Jun 2007 08:39:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-661033</guid>
		<description>#17

Looks like this thread will disappear soon, but I&#039;ll try to get some photos tomorrow.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#17</p>
<p>Looks like this thread will disappear soon, but I&#8217;ll try to get some photos tomorrow.</p>
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		<title>By: Jägermeister</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-2/#comment-660728</link>
		<dc:creator>Jägermeister</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Jun 2007 02:54:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-660728</guid>
		<description>Good article Alix.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good article Alix.</p>
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		<title>By: BubbaRay</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-2/#comment-660706</link>
		<dc:creator>BubbaRay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Jun 2007 02:23:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-660706</guid>
		<description>#25, Alix, In a nutshell, light pollution is misdirected or misused light... generally resulting from an inappropriate application of exterior lighting products. Light pollution comes in several flavors... each with its own negative effects. These are: sky glow, glare and light tresspass.

Light pollution wastes billions of dollars annually in the United States. 5 to 10 billion depending on whose numbers you want to use.

Agreed that shielded and properly aimed LED lighting would be a large improvement.

http://www.starrynightlights.com/lpIndex.html
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#25, Alix, In a nutshell, light pollution is misdirected or misused light&#8230; generally resulting from an inappropriate application of exterior lighting products. Light pollution comes in several flavors&#8230; each with its own negative effects. These are: sky glow, glare and light tresspass.</p>
<p>Light pollution wastes billions of dollars annually in the United States. 5 to 10 billion depending on whose numbers you want to use.</p>
<p>Agreed that shielded and properly aimed LED lighting would be a large improvement.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.starrynightlights.com/lpIndex.html" rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"></a><a href='http://www.starrynightlights.com/lpIndex.html' rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.starrynightlights.com/lpIndex.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: smartalix</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-2/#comment-660517</link>
		<dc:creator>smartalix</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jun 2007 23:39:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-660517</guid>
		<description>23,

In test deployments in places like parking lots and garages people polled said they felt much more secure because they could see colors. In a monochrome light environment something almost has to move before you notice it becuase many of the contrasts we require for visual cues are absent. Streets look healthier when all of the colors of the signage and people and vehicles are color-accurate.

24,

You can get dimmable LED lamps. Here&#039;s one from 2004:
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2004/Oct/1088474.htm

It is only the most recent generations of LEDs that are good enough for incandescent-replacement lamp applications, so I understand if there is a lot of misinformation out there. However, the emitters are now bright enough, efficient enough, and if deployed in volume cheap enough to now move into the mainstream.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>23,</p>
<p>In test deployments in places like parking lots and garages people polled said they felt much more secure because they could see colors. In a monochrome light environment something almost has to move before you notice it becuase many of the contrasts we require for visual cues are absent. Streets look healthier when all of the colors of the signage and people and vehicles are color-accurate.</p>
<p>24,</p>
<p>You can get dimmable LED lamps. Here&#8217;s one from 2004:<br />
<a href="http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2004/Oct/1088474.htm" rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"></a><a href='http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2004/Oct/1088474.htm' rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2004/Oct/1088474.htm</a></p>
<p>It is only the most recent generations of LEDs that are good enough for incandescent-replacement lamp applications, so I understand if there is a lot of misinformation out there. However, the emitters are now bright enough, efficient enough, and if deployed in volume cheap enough to now move into the mainstream.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark Derail</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-2/#comment-660443</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark Derail</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jun 2007 21:54:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-660443</guid>
		<description>One downside to the LED lights, is no dimmer.
My wife loves dimmers.

When I had the in ground cement pool built two years ago, I asked for a special mix for the bull-nose around the pool.

If you mix powdered glass instead of powdered rock, you get a semi-translucent cement that&#039;s just as strong.

Then with a single underground light source (or two) you light up the entire rim of the pool. Or even make the entire pool out of this glass cement.

Well, didn&#039;t happen. The pool maker thought this was so funny, we was still chuckling half an hour later, and the next day . . .
(I still think it would be cool)
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One downside to the LED lights, is no dimmer.<br />
My wife loves dimmers.</p>
<p>When I had the in ground cement pool built two years ago, I asked for a special mix for the bull-nose around the pool.</p>
<p>If you mix powdered glass instead of powdered rock, you get a semi-translucent cement that&#8217;s just as strong.</p>
<p>Then with a single underground light source (or two) you light up the entire rim of the pool. Or even make the entire pool out of this glass cement.</p>
<p>Well, didn&#8217;t happen. The pool maker thought this was so funny, we was still chuckling half an hour later, and the next day . . .<br />
(I still think it would be cool)</p>
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		<title>By: BubbaRay</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-2/#comment-660438</link>
		<dc:creator>BubbaRay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jun 2007 21:50:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-660438</guid>
		<description>#21, Alix, I agree about the LED lighting, as long as it&#039;s directed and shielded properly. Bummer that it&#039;s not narrow spectrum, but as long as it is not shining into the sky, thus wasting energy and contributing to light pollution, not a giant problem.  It&#039;s that wide spectrum unshielded SSL I&#039;m worried about.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#21, Alix, I agree about the LED lighting, as long as it&#8217;s directed and shielded properly. Bummer that it&#8217;s not narrow spectrum, but as long as it is not shining into the sky, thus wasting energy and contributing to light pollution, not a giant problem.  It&#8217;s that wide spectrum unshielded SSL I&#8217;m worried about.</p>
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		<title>By: BubbaRay</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-2/#comment-660341</link>
		<dc:creator>BubbaRay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jun 2007 20:32:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-660341</guid>
		<description>#19, Mark, that&#039;s some pretty cool technology, thanks for the link.  As long as it&#039;s used for indoor, not outdoor !!  And from the article posted earlier, one can get different colors, too.
 
http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11825</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#19, Mark, that&#8217;s some pretty cool technology, thanks for the link.  As long as it&#8217;s used for indoor, not outdoor !!  And from the article posted earlier, one can get different colors, too.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11825" rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"></a><a href='http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11825' rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11825</a></p>
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		<title>By: Smartalix</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-2/#comment-660331</link>
		<dc:creator>Smartalix</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jun 2007 20:19:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-660331</guid>
		<description>18,

BubbaRay, LED light sources are highly directional with up to 40% less backscatter. They would actually improve the nighjt sky as they would significantly reduce stray light.

19,

You wouldn&#039;t use transformers, you&#039;d use much smaller and lighter switching power supplies. SSL will require an entirely new way of thought in lighting design. (Not to mention the advantages of having light as an addressable instant-on/off facility subsystem.)

As far as price goes, you can now get a 100+ lumen LED now for ~$2 in OEM quantities.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>18,</p>
<p>BubbaRay, LED light sources are highly directional with up to 40% less backscatter. They would actually improve the nighjt sky as they would significantly reduce stray light.</p>
<p>19,</p>
<p>You wouldn&#8217;t use transformers, you&#8217;d use much smaller and lighter switching power supplies. SSL will require an entirely new way of thought in lighting design. (Not to mention the advantages of having light as an addressable instant-on/off facility subsystem.)</p>
<p>As far as price goes, you can now get a 100+ lumen LED now for ~$2 in OEM quantities.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark Derail</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-1/#comment-660302</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark Derail</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jun 2007 19:45:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-660302</guid>
		<description>My fav combo :

A centralized cheap light source, easy to replace.
Distribute light with fiber optics.

Imagine a cheap 0.99$ 100w bulb lighting up an entire house.
With the other post about using sunlight as a daytime source.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My fav combo :</p>
<p>A centralized cheap light source, easy to replace.<br />
Distribute light with fiber optics.</p>
<p>Imagine a cheap 0.99$ 100w bulb lighting up an entire house.<br />
With the other post about using sunlight as a daytime source.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark Derail</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-1/#comment-660299</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark Derail</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jun 2007 19:42:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-660299</guid>
		<description>For Bubba :
http://tinyurl.com/ynp5q2

Better than EL strips, but not in the market yet.

Remember that with daily use, EL strips won&#039;t last past 5 years.
For that matter, neons and compact neons won&#039;t either.

The newer LED&#039;s are better in this respect, the problem is power distribution. Easy to distribute 120v or 240v AC, not so easy with 12v DC.

Putting transformers for LED&#039;s at the point-of-use greatly increases cost, better to have one larger transformer with wiring just for a group of LED lamps / fixtures.

At cost price, a 1 watt Luxeon LED is roughly 8$, so a screw-in bulb that can replace a 100watt lightbulb would cost over 50$ (5x1watt).

Whereas CFL&#039;s cost 8$ / 10$ for a 40 / 60 watt bulb remplacement.

The market for LED light bulbs are tiny, where it has to be cost effective within five years to surpass neons.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For Bubba :<br />
<a href="http://tinyurl.com/ynp5q2" rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"></a><a href='http://tinyurl.com/ynp5q2' rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://tinyurl.com/ynp5q2</a></p>
<p>Better than EL strips, but not in the market yet.</p>
<p>Remember that with daily use, EL strips won&#8217;t last past 5 years.<br />
For that matter, neons and compact neons won&#8217;t either.</p>
<p>The newer LED&#8217;s are better in this respect, the problem is power distribution. Easy to distribute 120v or 240v AC, not so easy with 12v DC.</p>
<p>Putting transformers for LED&#8217;s at the point-of-use greatly increases cost, better to have one larger transformer with wiring just for a group of LED lamps / fixtures.</p>
<p>At cost price, a 1 watt Luxeon LED is roughly 8$, so a screw-in bulb that can replace a 100watt lightbulb would cost over 50$ (5x1watt).</p>
<p>Whereas CFL&#8217;s cost 8$ / 10$ for a 40 / 60 watt bulb remplacement.</p>
<p>The market for LED light bulbs are tiny, where it has to be cost effective within five years to surpass neons.</p>
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		<title>By: BubbaRay</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2007/06/07/the-solid-state-lighting-revolution-is-coming/comment-page-1/#comment-660206</link>
		<dc:creator>BubbaRay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jun 2007 18:21:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=11634#comment-660206</guid>
		<description>Alix, &quot;This is a good thing, as LEDs also put out light with a broad spectrum in contrast to monochromatic sources like sodium lamps.&quot;

For astronomers, this is a really &lt;i&gt;bad&lt;/i&gt; thing.  Light pollution is a major problem.  Bet you can&#039;t see many stars in NYC, and most folks don&#039;t even know that a real dark night sky exists -- they&#039;re used to that garbage gray glow that permeates the sky in large cities.  At least with mercury and sodium lamps that emit light in specific narrowband wavelengths, one can purchase a narrowband filter to get rid of the junk.  With broadband emissions, such as SSL or incandescent lighting, no filter will work.  Might as well just turn the beauty of the night sky off, so people can ignore it as they have been for the last 50 years.

Here&#039;s a picture of earth skies at night::
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap061001.html


</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alix, &#8220;This is a good thing, as LEDs also put out light with a broad spectrum in contrast to monochromatic sources like sodium lamps.&#8221;</p>
<p>For astronomers, this is a really <i>bad</i> thing.  Light pollution is a major problem.  Bet you can&#8217;t see many stars in NYC, and most folks don&#8217;t even know that a real dark night sky exists &#8212; they&#8217;re used to that garbage gray glow that permeates the sky in large cities.  At least with mercury and sodium lamps that emit light in specific narrowband wavelengths, one can purchase a narrowband filter to get rid of the junk.  With broadband emissions, such as SSL or incandescent lighting, no filter will work.  Might as well just turn the beauty of the night sky off, so people can ignore it as they have been for the last 50 years.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a picture of earth skies at night::<br />
<a href="http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap061001.html" rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"></a><a href='http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap061001.html' rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap061001.html</a></p>
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