This is why pundits should be more careful about making predictions. It’s easier than ever to check back on them.

Here’s a couple of the Top Ten from Foreign Policy magazine:

#1 – “If [Hillary Clinton] gets a race against John Edwards and Barack Obama, she’s going to be the nominee. Gore is the only threat to her, then. … Barack Obama is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in a single Democratic primary. I’ll predict that right now.” —William Kristol, Fox News Sunday, Dec. 17, 2006

Weekly Standard editor and New York Times columnist William Kristol was hardly alone in thinking that the Democratic primary was Clinton’s to lose, but it takes a special kind of self-confidence to make a declaration this sweeping more than a year before the first Iowa caucus was held. After Iowa, Kristol lurched to the other extreme, declaring that Clinton would lose New Hampshire and that “There will be no Clinton Restoration.” It’s also worth pointing out that this second wildly premature prediction was made in a Times column titled, “President Mike Huckabee?” The Times is currently rumored to be looking for his replacement.


#4 – “[A]nyone who says we’re in a recession, or heading into one—especially the worst one since the Great Depression—is making up his own private definition of ‘recession.’” —Donald Luskin, The Washington Post, Sept. 14, 2008

The day after Luskin’s op-ed, “Quit Doling Out That Bad-Economy Line,” appeared in the Post, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, and the rest is history. Liberal bloggers had long ago dubbed the Trend Macrolytics chief investment officer and informal McCain advisor “the Stupidest Man Alive.” This time, they had some particularly damning evidence.

Click the link up top and enjoy the rest.




  1. Wretched Gnu says:

    William Kristol is the poster-boy for wrong predictions about national and global events. If he says one thing, the reality always turns out to be the opposite.

  2. jealousmonk says:

    Here’s hoping Bill Kristol dies so they can name the life-time achievement award for bad predictions after him.

  3. Sean O'Hara says:

    Surely someone’s been taking notes on No Agenda, Cranky Geeks, and TWIT and can put together a Top 10 list for Dvorak predictions.

  4. Mr. Fusion says:

    #12, Cow-Paddy, Ignorant Shit Talking Sociopath and Retired Mall Rent-A-Cop,

    Anyway. No, Obama will not try to gain control of the Fed and eliminate it & the corrupt banking system.

    Still making predictions.

    Point of fact, the problem here wasn’t the Fed. It was the oversight agencies that allowed the Banks to get mired in bad mortgages without proper oversight. Then when Bush allowed the rest of the economy to fail, the whole house of cards came tumbling down.

  5. optimist says:

    >># 13 pcsmith
    >>The collider never got up to speed and is >>currently under repair.

    Then I guess there is still hope.

  6. Paddy-O says:

    # 24 Mr. Fusion said, “Still making predictions. ”

    Yes, Mr ConFusion, just as yesterday am I told you the auto bailout was DOA in the Senate and you protested that it was alive & well.

    For a small fee I can replace your faulty news sources. I only charge $1,500 per question asked.

  7. James Hill says:

    Meanwhile, no one has equated the job losses to punishment for not voting for the right.

    If you’re going to hype the right being about business, you’ve got to go all the way with it.

    #23 – He’d have to get 10 right in a year to do a 10 best list.



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