Comments on: Commercial Real Estate… the Next Shoe to Drop? http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/01/07/commercial-real-estatethe-next-shoe-to-drop/ General interest observations and true web-log. Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:46:40 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: LibertyLover http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/01/07/commercial-real-estatethe-next-shoe-to-drop/comment-page-1/#comment-1467681 LibertyLover Thu, 08 Jan 2009 21:54:06 +0000 http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=35830#comment-1467681 #9, <i>He said that property values aren’t pegged to actual real estate values or trends, but formulas and assessors’ opinions of what the value should be for tax purposes only!</i> He's full of it. If you can get an independent survey of the recent home sales prices in your area, you can fight it and win. I did it, shortly after the state "re-assessed" all home prices in my state at an average of +15% about 6 years ago (right after the .com bust). Asking the government to assess your property accurately when they are ones who stand to win or lose is a "fox and hen house" arrangement. #9, He said that property values aren’t pegged to actual real estate values or trends, but formulas and assessors’ opinions of what the value should be for tax purposes only!

He’s full of it.

If you can get an independent survey of the recent home sales prices in your area, you can fight it and win. I did it, shortly after the state “re-assessed” all home prices in my state at an average of +15% about 6 years ago (right after the .com bust).

Asking the government to assess your property accurately when they are ones who stand to win or lose is a “fox and hen house” arrangement.

]]> By: WNYer http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/01/07/commercial-real-estatethe-next-shoe-to-drop/comment-page-1/#comment-1467484 WNYer Thu, 08 Jan 2009 16:51:25 +0000 http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=35830#comment-1467484 Here in the Land of Benderson strip malls are still being built with tax incentives and hotels are being built with tax incentives, all while every credible forecast of demand for either points to the insanity of adding more supply to a crashing market. But here the politicians tremble at the thought of a lawsuit for denying expansion and their God-given right to build whatever the f they want regardless of what green space they displace or what infrastructure is demanded. Insanity has been defined as repeating the same action while expecting a different outcome. Stop by if you'd like to see examples. Here in the Land of Benderson strip malls are still being built with tax incentives and hotels are being built with tax incentives, all while every credible forecast of demand for either points to the insanity of adding more supply to a crashing market. But here the politicians tremble at the thought of a lawsuit for denying expansion and their God-given right to build whatever the f they want regardless of what green space they displace or what infrastructure is demanded. Insanity has been defined as repeating the same action while expecting a different outcome. Stop by if you’d like to see examples.

]]> By: OvenMaster http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/01/07/commercial-real-estatethe-next-shoe-to-drop/comment-page-1/#comment-1467207 OvenMaster Thu, 08 Jan 2009 03:03:20 +0000 http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=35830#comment-1467207 #5: wanna bet? I just got my property tax statement from my city. The assessor must be living in a dream world: not only did the 2009 tax rate per thousand go up 2.5%, but so did my home valuation! I called up the assessor and asked why my house value went up when real estate prices are plummeting everywhere. He said that property values aren't pegged to actual real estate values or trends, but formulas and assessors' opinions of what the value should be for tax purposes only! No break for some of us this year! #5: wanna bet? I just got my property tax statement from my city. The assessor must be living in a dream world: not only did the 2009 tax rate per thousand go up 2.5%, but so did my home valuation! I called up the assessor and asked why my house value went up when real estate prices are plummeting everywhere. He said that property values aren’t pegged to actual real estate values or trends, but formulas and assessors’ opinions of what the value should be for tax purposes only!

No break for some of us this year!

]]> By: bobbo http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/01/07/commercial-real-estatethe-next-shoe-to-drop/comment-page-1/#comment-1466963 bobbo Wed, 07 Jan 2009 20:30:59 +0000 http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=35830#comment-1466963 Nightline just did a show on the market for highend realestate==the $50Million White Elephants. The good news was that high end properties get hit near the bottom of a down market. Somehow I don't think that is true this time. With oil prices down (Dubai properties in huge slump causing building halt) and the market "disappearing for recyclables" (waste goods selling last year at $160 per ton now at $20 or zero) I think the White Elephant slump may actually indicate how deep and persistent this depression will be.===see #4 for the reason--and has anyone heard just what the Big Three Auto have agreed to do that will make them competitive in the world market??? Me neither. So jobs will continue to disappear==the real engine of a healthy society. Nightline just did a show on the market for highend realestate==the $50Million White Elephants. The good news was that high end properties get hit near the bottom of a down market.

Somehow I don’t think that is true this time. With oil prices down (Dubai properties in huge slump causing building halt) and the market “disappearing for recyclables” (waste goods selling last year at $160 per ton now at $20 or zero) I think the White Elephant slump may actually indicate how deep and persistent this depression will be.===see #4 for the reason–and has anyone heard just what the Big Three Auto have agreed to do that will make them competitive in the world market??? Me neither. So jobs will continue to disappear==the real engine of a healthy society.

]]> By: Improbus http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/01/07/commercial-real-estatethe-next-shoe-to-drop/comment-page-1/#comment-1466958 Improbus Wed, 07 Jan 2009 20:28:19 +0000 http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=35830#comment-1466958 After the commercial property shoe hits the ground there will be at least one more bump: credit cards go boom. After the commercial property shoe hits the ground there will be at least one more bump: credit cards go boom.

]]> By: sargasso http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/01/07/commercial-real-estatethe-next-shoe-to-drop/comment-page-1/#comment-1466953 sargasso Wed, 07 Jan 2009 20:21:13 +0000 http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=35830#comment-1466953 Strip malls make good new urban neighborhoods, for working families. They're close to freeways, have good parking and open spaces. And dwellings mixed with retailers improve the security and the financial stability of the communities. A mall is a city of shops, without houses - that never made any sense. Strip malls make good new urban neighborhoods, for working families. They’re close to freeways, have good parking and open spaces. And dwellings mixed with retailers improve the security and the financial stability of the communities. A mall is a city of shops, without houses – that never made any sense.

]]> By: ECA http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/01/07/commercial-real-estatethe-next-shoe-to-drop/comment-page-1/#comment-1466947 ECA Wed, 07 Jan 2009 20:16:00 +0000 http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=35830#comment-1466947 YEA, Property taxes MIGHT DUMP ALSO??? YES, YES, YES... Starting companies and the little guy, MIGHT get a chance.. YEA,
Property taxes MIGHT DUMP ALSO???
YES, YES, YES…

Starting companies and the little guy, MIGHT get a chance..

]]> By: soundwash http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/01/07/commercial-real-estatethe-next-shoe-to-drop/comment-page-1/#comment-1466942 soundwash Wed, 07 Jan 2009 20:09:26 +0000 http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=35830#comment-1466942 um..duh...its all ready been said the next wave of defaults will be bigger than the last.. ALT-A and ARM mortgage resets coupled with mass store closings leaving landlords with no one to pay the rents will be bigger than the recent sub-prime scam.. 2008 was the warm-up..2009-10 will be pure hell...my bets start the next wave around feb-april.. with maybe a little selloff starting this friday just for sh*ts & giggles.. -*turn off your TV's* and stop listening to the payed MSM stooges and learn to read the data yourself.. on top of that...as soon as the warehouses run dry, were going to have shortages the land of excess hasn't seen in ages.. stock up on all your spare parts/food and whatever else.. prices will soar soon.. learn the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) its the only index that cant be manipulated to hell..its still flat... for a quick clue..listen/study this chart.. http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/playvideo.aspx?v_id=254 -just how long do you think can keep suppressing the gold price to keep the dollar propped up? -s um..duh…its all ready been said the next wave of defaults will be bigger than the last..

ALT-A and ARM mortgage resets coupled with
mass store closings leaving landlords with
no one to pay the rents will be bigger
than the recent sub-prime scam..

2008 was the warm-up..2009-10 will be pure
hell…my bets start the next wave around feb-april.. with maybe a little selloff starting
this friday just for sh*ts & giggles..

-*turn off your TV’s* and stop listening to the
payed MSM stooges and learn to read the data yourself..

on top of that…as soon as the warehouses run dry, were going to have shortages the land of excess hasn’t seen in ages.. stock up on all your spare parts/food and whatever else..
prices will soar soon..

learn the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) its the only index that cant be manipulated to hell..its still flat…

for a quick clue..listen/study this chart..

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/playvideo.aspx?v_id=254

-just how long do you think can keep suppressing the gold price to keep the dollar propped up?

-s

]]> By: 9yo http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/01/07/commercial-real-estatethe-next-shoe-to-drop/comment-page-1/#comment-1466931 9yo Wed, 07 Jan 2009 19:57:13 +0000 http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=35830#comment-1466931 go long SRS go long SRS

]]> By: Improbus http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/01/07/commercial-real-estatethe-next-shoe-to-drop/comment-page-1/#comment-1466915 Improbus Wed, 07 Jan 2009 19:23:53 +0000 http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=35830#comment-1466915 It is getting kind of Grapes of Wrathy out there. It is getting kind of Grapes of Wrathy out there.

]]> By: Eric http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/01/07/commercial-real-estatethe-next-shoe-to-drop/comment-page-1/#comment-1466909 Eric Wed, 07 Jan 2009 19:02:26 +0000 http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=35830#comment-1466909 Yeah, strip malls all around are emptying out. Here in Vegas, it seems that there are at least 2-3 vacancies per strip mall, and if the large store that brings in most of the customers closes, then the rest of the mall folds. There are at least 3 within 3 miles of here that a year ago were vibrant and full and now are looking like a scene from The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly. Yeah, strip malls all around are emptying out. Here in Vegas, it seems that there are at least 2-3 vacancies per strip mall, and if the large store that brings in most of the customers closes, then the rest of the mall folds. There are at least 3 within 3 miles of here that a year ago were vibrant and full and now are looking like a scene from The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly.

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