 Peter Nicholson
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A new survey finds consensus among scientists about the reality of climate change and its likely cause. A group of 3,146 earth scientists surveyed around the world overwhelmingly agree that in the past 200-plus years, mean global temperatures have been rising, and that human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures.
In trying to overcome criticism of earlier attempts to gauge the view of earth scientists on global warming and the human impact factor, Peter Doran and Kendall Zimmerman sought the opinion of the most complete list of earth scientists they could find, contacting more than 10,200 experts around the world listed in the 2007 edition of the American Geological Institute’s Directory of Geoscience Departments.
Questions used were reviewed by a polling expert who checked for bias in phrasing, such as suggesting an answer by the way a question was worded. The nine-question survey was short, taking just a few minutes to complete.
Two questions were key: have mean global temperatures risen compared to pre-1800s levels, and has human activity been a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures.
About 90 percent of the scientists agreed with the first question and 82 percent the second.
In analyzing responses by sub-groups, Doran found that climatologists who are active in research showed the strongest consensus on the causes of global warming, with 97 percent agreeing humans play a role.
Doran and Kendall Zimmerman conclude that “the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes.”
Not that skeptics will care. Anti-intellectualism, anti-science convictions reflect hangups ranging from creationism to the good old favorite – “Al Gore said it and I hate his suits”.
I don’t ask the mailman to read my X-Rays.
I don’t ask my doctor if the oil needs changing.
I don’t ask my neighbor for hot stock tips.
And I don’t ask a TV weatherman to predict climate change.
If I want to know about a specific subject, I ask an expert in the field. I don’t see any experts here at DU.
Antarctic Warming Detected by Scientists
Bloomberg News
http://tinyurl.com/bau3hh
New York Times
http://tinyurl.com/9fe468
2005 Was The Warmest Year In A Century
http://tinyurl.com/aelg7k
Apparent Problem With Global Warming Climate Models Resolved
http://tinyurl.com/5268h6
Of course, the idiots with their minds frozen in that Bush Memory won’t bother. But, I didn’t notice any of them backing up what they claimed.
# 61 Mr. Fusion said, “If I want to know about a specific subject, I ask an expert in the field. I don’t see any experts here at DU.”
Okay, so let’s ask an expert:
Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist
Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia,
and former director of the US Weather Satellite Service
http://geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
“A group of 3,146 earth scientists surveyed around the world overwhelmingly agree that in the past 200-plus years, mean global temperatures have been rising”
“contacting more than 10,200 experts around the world”
10,200/3,146 = consensus
Makes as much sense as Global Warming being caused by humans
So many climate experts on DU! I’m honored to be in such esteemed company.
I sure your kids will be thrilled that their future may well depend on your expert assessments.
MikeN, Gore claimed credit when all he did was support something others did. Not bad but claiming to be father of net was major hyperbole. He has a gift for it.
Climate changes. Climate has always changed. Climate will continue to change. It can and has changed very fast on occasion. When that happens people die. Empires fall.
I’m satisfied that CO2 levels are causing problems for some forms of sea life.
How it plays in climate change is harder to understand. The last claim I read today was that Anarctica is getting warmer. Yes Sir the mean temp is now all the way up to -58 degrees. Sounds like a regular heat wave.
If you ask somebody if adding CO2 to the air will warm the planet the answer is yes. How much what we have added will change the temp is a wild guess. They’re modals are so good they’v been off by at least 5 to 10 degrees to warm every day for at least a month where I live.
I’ve been told that at times in the past the atmosphere had as much as 2,000 times as much CO2 as it does now. The artic was temperate then and they claim a fraction as much will make it temperate now. I don’t think they have much of a clue.
The Boogeyman is gonna’ get ya unless you [-insert formula/obedience/lifestyle/affiliation here-]!!!
When hippos are once again able to re-populate the Thames, we ought to be getting to a more normal climate right?
I like how they’re so desperate to validate Global Warming, that they stoop to an opinion poll as proof! I’ll bet, right now I could take an opinion poll asking if George Bush was a War Criminal. And selecting skew the sampling to get an overwhelming YES percentage. Does that mean we should expect him to stand trial soon? Forget it. It ain’t going to happen. But the point is, what science usually labels as anecdotal evidence, when it based on peoples off the cuff opinion (and not unbiased test data). They turn around and embrace as proof enough to waste billions of dollars in public funds on. To me it’s like two flees on the back of an elephant. Arguing which course they should set for the beast’s day trip. As if they could have the slightest effect at all. Well the insect population of the earth far outnumber us humans. And probably have more of an impact on the earth than we do. But they don’t poll entomologists about their consensus of that!
I’ve noted that part of the G.W. advocates’ solution to the problem is to keep the 3rd world countries, like South Africa, right where they are as under-developed. Don’t let them ever acquire RELIABLE electric power from sources like coal or oil. Forget Wind, Solar. It barely works in countries with coal and oil, to fall back on. How’s it to work for these countries as their sole source of power. It’s a joke, and the scientists proposing it, know it is. But it’ll serve to keep these nations “in the dark” so to speak, for decades longer. And they’re labor costs will also be maintained cheap, for outsourcing industry.
Set them onto the road of industrial development. And just like the rest of us, they’ll eventually want to be paid better, and have an improved standard of living. Keep them in the dark, with crude power generation. And they’re too starving and ignorant to know better. That seems to be what this G.W. scare is really all about. And conveniently timed, as I’m sure it’s getting tougher to come up with reasons why the rest of the world should remain so backward.
#63 And you take a single data point (2005) and decalre global warming? Pathetic!
Warmest year, meet 2008 & 2009
#64 Astonishing that he hasn’t put down that link as propaganda. Maybe “his” google is not working properly to refute
What a bunch of useless crap!
I read 60 or so comments and found nothing worth the effort, with the possible exception of some interesting new info from dusan, and the folks who pointed out the obvious fact that we can barely feed the six billion on the planet now.
90% of responders deny simply for political reasons — “Dang hippie longhair eggheads!”
Also about 90% (not necessarily the same 90%) feel it’s all just made up to inconvenience them personally.
The top arguments so far:
* It didn’t predict when I broke my toe last year, so it’s junk.
* When their models don’t agree with observation, they tweak the models!
(Of course they tweak their models! Who wants models that don’t work?)
* [Someone, usually someone whose name ends with an "o"] is a poopyhead and eats shit.
(Predominant topic in the comments section on almost every news story on this blog.)
* Flawed. Needs more study.
(Bush 43′s response to every treaty the U.S. ever signed.)
* What difference does it make?
(Remember how suddenly food cost twice as much as it had just a few years before? It has gone back down a little now, but imagine that happening year after year after year after year. Imagine six billion hungry people, some with access to weapons, and some with access to even MORE weapons…)
* The person who called me a poopyhead is a nimrod and should eat bugs.
———-
You know, there was a time when I used to read the comments on this blog in hopes of learning something. Was I dreaming? Or am I just cranky today?
#72–Uncle==to fill it in a bit more:
“* When their models don’t agree with observation, they tweak the models!
(Of course they tweak their models! Who wants models that don’t work?) /// Thats the whole point==THE MODEL doesn’t work so they tweak it to make it work AND THEN they claim it works. That kind of backfilling gives no confidence.
“Al Gore said it and I hate his suits”.
Oh, thank you. Now I have a reasonable motive for this loonies. I was always thinking what it is that drives them.
# 72 Uncle Patso said, “You know, there was a time when I used to read the comments on this blog in hopes of learning something.”
I am happy that you know more about this subject than an atmospheric physicist. ROFL. Go away troll.
#64, Cow-Paddy,
You are getting much better. As pointed out above though, the Climate Change deniers are almost all in the pocket of big oil.
http://tinyurl.com/2k4p8o
Singer is the President of SEPP.
http://tinyurl.com/2kqysb
I’ve noticed that Tinyurl works whereas embedded links get caught in the spam filter.
paddytwat,
back from school so early?
you know just as little
# 76 Mr. Fusion said, “You are getting much better. As pointed out above though, the Climate Change deniers are almost all in the pocket of big oil.”
Too funny, you should read up on what Patrick Moore, founder of Greenpeace has to say about the enviro nuts and who infiltrated them, long ago, and why THEY are responsible for us still using fossil fuel.
You should research. Although, when you get the data you’ll probably die of embarrassment.
Anyway. Please ignore ANY scientist who receives gov or University grants as they are shill for the politically correct forces. Who do we then have left?
Give me a link when you have the data… I’ll wait…
# 77 jimbo said, “I am obsessed with Paddy-o and lacking any intelligence can only post in response to him.”
I don’t need to prove intelligence to an incompetent fool like you, and I post in response to you because you claim to know more than everyone else on EVERY subject.
It’s a natural response to annoy someone who acts the ass 24/7