I am one of the very few people who several years ago unequivocally predicted the demise of the United States as a global superpower. The idea that the USA will go the way of the USSR seemed preposterous at the time. It doesn’t seem so preposterous any more. I take it some of you are still hedging your bets. How is that hedge fund doing, by the way?
I think I prefer remaining just a tourist, because I have learned from experience – luckily, from other people’s experience – that being a superpower collapse predictor is not a good career choice. I learned that by observing what happened to the people who successfully predicted the collapse of the USSR. Do you know who Andrei Amalrik is? See, my point exactly. He successfully predicted the collapse of the USSR. He was off by just half a decade. That was another valuable lesson for me, which is why I will not give you an exact date when USA will turn into FUSA (“F” is for “Former”). But even if someone could choreograph the whole event, it still wouldn’t make for much of a career, because once it all starts falling apart, people have far more important things to attend to than marveling at the wonderful predictive abilities of some Cassandra-like person.
Found by Heinrich Moltke.
This guy doesn’t have investments… you can make money on a bull or bear. If he’s so confident of his prediction, he should put his money where his mouth is… oh ya, he doesn’t know when this will happen so he can’t time the market. Bull…
As much as I despise America for what it’s become, there are good people there and they have every intention to rebuild it all better.
This downturn is like all the others. The fast the dive, the faster the recovery. Companies just want the free money going around.
# 7 Neo-Postdarwinst – “If America collapses does that mean the British get to rule the world again? We did it with so much more style and panache that you do …”
I refuse to be ruled by any fancy pants that uses the word “panache”! Get a rope!
The prediction of the Soviet collapse was quite apparent.
1) A sizable portion of the country was comprised of conquered nations and peoples. As long as they were kept out of the power circles, and they were, the USSR remained fragmented.
2) Mass communications allowed Western life styles to enter the USSR. This could not be stopped. While the leaders wanted nuclear weapons and tanks, the people wanted toasters and cars. Instead, all they got was vodka and lots of it.
3) As long as political corruption continued. there was a class society. Unhappy people are not the most productive.
4) Satellite countries (Iron Curtain countries, Cuba, Libya, etc) were a drain and distraction internally. It cost a lot to keep their dictators in power.
Looking at these conditions, it was not hard to see and understand the fall of the USSR. Russia however, is still a very powerful nation and anyone would be wise before tweaking its nose. For example, Georgia.
The United States on the other hand is the opposite of these conditions.
It is a unified country of culturally homogeneous people. We speak the same language, watch the same TV, read the same books, eat the same food, … . Someone from Georgia will fit right in moving to New Hampshire, Arizona, or Oregon.
America is a trend setter in culture and its diversity is not as vilified. We are tolerant of those pushing the envelope.
Political corruption is not tolerated. We elect our leaders from our own communities. We reserve our prisons to those who break the laws of society, not those who disagree with us.
Our friends and neighbors are all democratic and free. For the most part we don’t support dictatorships and most Americans find that antithetical to their beliefs.
China will soon find itself in a huge problem. Too many elderly and not enough young to care for them. While the One Child policy is necessary, the backlash will soon catch up. India is going to choke on its own human mass. Both China, but even more so India, are lacking educational opportunities for the majority.
Nope, in my opinion the US is here as a major power for a long time.
#14 No , Diesel – that current administration is not who I had in mind.
I tend to grade the results of an administration after about 3 years, not 30 days. You?
# 23 Mr. Fusion said, “It is a unified country of culturally homogeneous people. We speak the same language, watch the same TV, read the same books, eat the same food,”
You obviously don’t live in the SW. The largest TV & radio stations don’t broadcast in English. 40% of the largset city on the West coast are foreign born and most aren’t fluent in English… This # is increasing every year.
Flush
#24 Dallas
I base my opinion on just about the same scale as the media. Once you are in office the problem is yours no matter who just left.
So, tag, Obomba’s it.
The country will be lucky to be here after 3 years of this crap.
Spot on. The locals seem to be in denial, but to those who know the world beyond the borders all this is not that difficult to see.
I have a lay person’s understanding of how/why the USSR, Great Britain, Spain, Rome, Egypt gained and then lost their empires.
Seems to me they either lost a military engagement against a superseding foe, or they because so civilized they declined to continue oppressing the countries in their sphere of influence?
Seems to me the USA has a bit of both?
#18 – I looked at your SOTT link and read the whole thing, but I have to say that when I got to the part about the “those that control our world” the doom-nik BS flag went up. Who are ‘those’ people, anyway? I personally think human beings, no matter how powerful, are basically too stupid and/or self interested to hide real conspiracies, and always have been.
There is this guy named Gerald Celente (who lives near here), who has been constantly ranting about “powers that be who control everything” for about 25 years now. After 9/11, he was going to convert all his assets into gold and head for Canada…but by gosh he’s back! Didn’t miss a beat and is now ranting away as usual. Maybe we actually need people like him around, just to keep us thinking…or something.
In the past the solution has always been to start a war.
I don’t know if we can start a new war today. With whom?
Also, an economy based on consumption (a euphemism for cancer) is an economy that must, necessarily, die.
With this new talk about nationalization of U.S. banks “free markets” has been proven to only work for the wealthy.
Now I am NOT an economy major. In fact I am far from it. But I can share my ideas on what I see. First I remember calling the whole real estate collapse when i was first looking for a place to live 5 years ago. I asked “Why is this place so much money”? The only answer I got was “it’s a resort town” ( FYI I lived in the Atlantic City area at the time ) Yes Atlantic city nj a resort town… Sounds bizarre doesn’t it. Anyways I see prices just going up and up, and I saw no reason why. My uncle had sold his house, and it was flipped 3-4 times in a span of two years. I said that was stupid of the peopel to think all they can do is put up a new wall, and sell a place for 50+ more. Who would it hurt? It would hurt the last guy who bought the house. They bought a house that was gouged to no end all because someone said it was worth more. So people were stuck with homes who only wanted to sell it but couldn’t. Now we have a real estate problem
Now what about everything else.. How does this tie in? Well again it is about the pricing. this time in reverse. For some companies to show profit, they cut costs by sending jobs overseas. It looked like a good idea at the time because we had money, and they did not. As a lot of you said earlier we got addicted to spending. I know I am. I don’t even walk around with my cards in fear of buying something. So now other people have money, people far away who won’t invest in our product. This goes on for a while, prices dive , and we think it’s all good. Well prices don’t go down any more. There has to be a price bottom that you can’t break right? Kind of a Moore’s law of sorts. So now with our debt, and no way to make a lot of cash we all start to fail
Not all of us. For all those I know who are doing well they either saved up a lot and could weather anything, OR they found a niche which they can use to their own gain. I know a couple who sells energy drinks and body building supplements and what not, and are killing it right now. The hubby does it full time at home, while the Ms. works part time at a coffee shop. How did they do it? They have constant customers. They have connections with professional bodybuilders, models, actors, etc so they just sell, sell, sell. The world market isn’t collapsing, it’s changing. It is changing from work for someone far away who wouldn’t drop a penny on your block if they ever went your way ( referring to what a lot people find fault with companies such as Wal-Mart, starbucks, etc. ) to What’s my hustle? Let me sell to my locals and I can refer others, and now your “Economy” as it were are your peers who helps by buying your products, and you use my services. This is what I see. Moral of the story, don’t get too big for your britches.
No wonder everyone wants to milk websites like twitter and facebook for sales ops.
#26 Bummer. You left me wanting as you didn’t answer my question but not surprised.
I would agree with you that the problem belongs to the guy in charge – but that’s not the question.
As far as “the country not here in 3 years” (presumably because of Obama) is just preemptive rhetoric that belongs at some future date.
Is depression here or not? not very clear. But if you look at the past history recessions and depressions come and go. Economies go through cycles and recession is part of the cycle.
In the mean time, I just came across a very helpful website on the current economic downturn and employment:
http://www.recessioninfocenter.com
http://www.recessioninfocenter.com/2008_tax_tips_for_recession.html
The reason the ‘country won’t be here’ is because our banks are hundreds or trillions of dollars in the hole, and yet our government is so bought and sold by the banks that they have chosen to stand behind the banks rather than the people (going so far as to say as much in recent days). If the government takes on those debts, as they will, our credit rating will go from AAA to B or worse overnight, no one will lend us money, and so we’ll have to monetize 100 trillion or more (the derivatives market, i.e. bets on bets, alone is 1.5 quadrillion dollars of funny money) which will destroy the US dollar and everything the relies upon it.
The only solution is bankruptcy and dealing with the trouble that would come from so many banks going belly up at once, but that solution is not politically tenable. Thus, no solution, and the feedback loop of a bad economy further killing the value of derivatives, because of a lack of lending brought on by technical insolvency due to reliance upon those derivatives, will continue until the organism (the USA, in this case) dies. I don’t care if we had elected Jesus H. Christ as president, there is nothing that he could do to solve this as long as the Legislature and Executive departments are totally compromised and beholden to interests that are not our own.
#25: Yes there are Spanish TV and radio stations out here (NM, AZ, TX, parts of CA, and NV anyway). However, immigrants (which are not all Spanish speaking–lots are Vietnamese in New Mexico, for instance) quickly figure out that it’s a good idea to learn to speak English to get ahead in the world. Both Spanish and Vietnamese are fitting in well in the Southwest.
# 34 Floyd said, “Both Spanish and Vietnamese are fitting in well in the Southwest.”
I meet people very often that have lived here for 10+ years who don’t speak any English. Try SoCal.
SoCal is only miles from the border! Tell me, P-O, do you speak any Spanish? After having lived near the border for -how- many years?
I am one of the believers in the fall of the USA. It has all the signs of former U.S.S.R. It threatens other countries with nukes. It supports dictators around the world. It is in itself in a mess while dictating others to cleanup. It has highest number of WMD’s and also a largest number of (moronic) army in the world.
Yep, after years of USA predicting others failure, its about time its going to taste the humiliation which it caused to others.
Boy I cant wait….the suspense is killing me
#37
If the US were to “collapse”, the vast majority of the world would go with it into a depression that would make the current economic crisis and the 1930′s crisis look like a walk in the park. The domino effect would be devastating. I’m not sure where you live but are you hoping that your country/local town goes into collapse? Unlike the Soviets, there are a lot of very wealthy countries that have a significant interest in having the US survive and be viable.
# 36 Li said, “SoCal is only miles from the border! Tell me, P-O, do you speak any Spanish?”
I understand it a bit and read it better than I speak it. How about you? Where do you live?