Here is the latest conversation I had with money manager Andrew Horowitz…. new insights for anyone who invests in anything. What to do? This chat is presented as-is for anyone who wants to listen in. We discuss the market conditions with some unique insights.
More importantly we look at the current opportunities at the bottom. Things may get weird in this market.
Gerald Celete Trends Research is also predicting we are just entering the “Greatest Depression.”
I note China is still growing…its basically an unregulated market…and that results in ecological damage to some degree…
Being in business I know the “dampening effect” regulation (and taxes) can have on new business formation…and in china we see the effect of virtually no regulation…growth even during recession.
Surely we can “roll back” some of the more onerous regulation that prevents new business…
AND perhaps adopt the “fair tax” so businesses will return from overseas.
Another gloomy fact…in the Great Depression there was a “dead cat bounce” in the market the following year…
And I recall a merchant saying he went out of business slowly…it took a year before unemployment rose high enough to put him out.
At first, nothing seemed changed…it was gradual.
Love the podcast, never miss it…BUT:
94MB for 68minutes of podcast is LUDICROUS (44.1kHz 192kbps j-stereo).
Please limit podcast to 64kbps mono (96kbps mono MAX). THE CAPS ARE COMING.
I can’t say that I understand everything John and Andrew say, but I get the basic gist of it. It makes me feel pretty good to hear people who know about all this financial stuff, basically confirm my own thought on the subject, even though those thoughts and confirmations are predicting more gloom and doom…
Does anyone else have problems getting this with iTunes? This episode is not available, and the last one (#20) only came through a few days ago.
Gerald Celete is a joke.
John, yes. This is a classic bear market trap. The fundamentals that caused this mess haven’t improved, and they are in fact getting worse.
Good stuff guys. I will never really understand why the private company banker & government tax money merry-go-round works but ya’ll help a lot. The inside practical knowledge is presented without the usual boredom I find most ‘talking-heads’ use when talking to regular folks.
Mr. Horowitz I dub thee, HumbleBee. Not to be confused with Bumble Bee (Federal Reserve) who has ‘airs’ and stings. The segment of the show about The Fed & cycles has me wondering about Clinton’s S&L thing. That is for later.
thanks, BuzzKill & HumbleBee
cc:itunes
Dvorak,
I want to comment on your PCmag story about Microsoft’s brand image.
I think you are correct, that Microsoft’s products get downgraded somewhat by the image. But there are fundamental differences between their products and those of other companies. Microsoft makes “geek” products, with little thought to user experience. It’s not a brand perception that google is better than MSN, mac is better than vista, or anything is better than “the ribbon”.
Microsoft arrogantly ships crappy products because they they want the revenue, and they know they can cram it down the monopoly. This is analogous to Detroit before Japanese cars were imported. Remember when you couldn’t get a car with seat belts? Well, now you can’t get a PC that reboots in under 3 minutes.
CRIPES… you are right… I had the default set too high. Sorry…I normally do not code at this 192 rate. Sigh.
I did not listen to the podcast – it’s far too long.
John: need a 3 page summary transcript.
This is most assuredly a bear trap.
Unfortunately, for all of us.
But when gauging the timing on this, don’t forget that it is not only the usual gang manipulating prices, but our mighty Gov under the supervision of the Three Dumb Men, a.k.a., the Three Stooges – “Curly” Bernanke, “Larry” Geithner and “Moe” Obama.
It’s awful. Most people now are feeling a lot better with the market pop and all the happy talk BS coming from the Three Stooges – except from poor, frightened Larry, also known as Rabbit Boy, who needs a mouthpiece since he is constantly shitting his soon-to-be pawned suit pants and cannot speak except in breathless gasps.
Another clearly manipulated item is oil. By any measure, oil should be no more than $25 – and will be soon. All those dumbfuck traders who have been hoarding the stuff in tankers, tanks and probably empty wine bottles, will be forced to panic-liquidate those holdings, all at once.
That could spike oil down to $18 or so.
Hello “deflation”, goodbye phony prosperity.
# 6 Lou Minatti said, on April 5th, 2009 at 7:25 am
Gerald Celete is a joke.
John, yes. This is a classic bear market trap. The fundamentals that caused this mess haven’t improved, and they are in fact getting worse.
Gerald Celente been right enough to gain a respectful consideration.
Doesn’t mean he must be right this time too.
Dick Morris explains why the Fed’s actions won’t work…”you can’t push a string.”
It doesn’t matter if local banks have billions waiting to be lent out…they won’t lend it out until they are confident it can be paid back…that collateral really is worth xyz…
I have my eye on a closed repair shop, four bays…it went from 750 K to about 450K now…although I’ve been in a successful buisness for over 20 years, and its still profitable, no bank is lending in the southern California area…the bottom in real estate hasn’t been reached…they require a large down…and the SBA won’t lend to me…
Instead I gotta pay 13,000 in taxes…and higher use fees which may cause me to lay off people…
Some stimulus…
I suspect they didn’t want it to work…they wanted to do something so when the collapse comes…they can say they tried…and then introduce their facist socialist tryanny that perhaps will project the “happy face” of Orwellian fame.
For your own good, they will decide what you can eat, and think…for the good of the planet.
#11
I suspect they didn’t want it to work…
Some feel this was the strategy of the false god Roosevelt.
# 12 rance bleester said, on April 5th, 2009 at 11:33 am
#11
I suspect they didn’t want it to work…
Some feel this was the strategy of the false god Roosevelt.
Perhaps…but Obama and crew have no excuse…we have excellent historical proofs which stimulus works…and which does not…and he chose to do what doesn’t work.
I believe he and congress are in damage control mode…they realize THEY are to blame for the meltdown…they didn’t enforce the regulation on the books…because they are all paid for…
AND now they are misdirecting the public’s attention to Wall Street…to keep themselves out of jail…or worse.
But as their CYA demolishes the greatest wealth producing entity in human history, and replaces it with their idea of what’s good for us and the planet…I can only hope enough Americans wake up to stop them.
Right.
To be ahead of this,people need to accept the change and prepare.
This means stocking up on food/water/necessities/pills, getting a weapon and ammo, creating neighborhood groups and so on.
Also need some cash a cheaply bought stock of tradeable goods for barter.
Pricing are going to drop – sell now, buy later for everything else.
Banks will have to adjust mortgages, or people will just squat anyway.
The Three Stooges will have to do a very quick about face on all their stupid, ruinous policies – wars and military, blue sky social/enviro BS, immigration, financial firm “bailouts”.
I think you are correct, that Microsoft’s products get downgraded somewhat by the image. But there are fundamental differences between their products and those of other companies. Microsoft makes “geek” products, with littlethought to user experience.
Will the stimulus help in the long term? Maybe, but that’s likely to come at the expense of deficit and inflation. We have been through several downturns before (see, for instance,
http://www.recessioninfocenter.com
so, maybe we should just accept that it’s part of the economic cycle
A note on blackbarries. I teach at a midwestern college and i have noticed a LOT of my students using blackbarries. most seem to be using Perls, but i am seeing a lot more of those storms.
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