The Great Recession, which rolled over our financial lives like one of P.J. Keating’s giant pavers, is most likely over. Home sales, while still far below the levels of a year ago, have risen for three straight months—a first since 2004. The stock market has rallied 44 percent since March, thanks to renewed optimism and improving earnings from big companies like Goldman Sachs and Apple. In June, seven of the 10 indicators in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index pointed upward, including manufacturing hours worked and unemployment claims.
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Irrational exuberance, it’s not. But even stagnation would be an improvement over recent history. [...] Catastrophe may have been averted. But when economists proclaim a recession over, they’re celebrating a technicality: they mean economic output has stopped contracting.
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Worse, the data point that means the most to our psychological well-being—unemployment—is likely to keep climbing. The loss of 6.5 million jobs since December 2007 has spurred the sharpest rise in the unemployment rate since the 1930s. As manufacturing jobs move overseas and companies struggle to further reduce costs, unemployment—which stands at 9.5 percent—is likely to rise above 10 percent. “There’s a difference between having an expansion and an economy that has recovered,” says Lawrence Summers, Obama’s chief economic adviser.Having survived a near-death economic experience, Americans now need to focus on surviving what’s likely to be a pokey, painful recovery. “I see 1 percent growth in the economy in the next few years,” says New York University economist Nouriel Roubini.
Joblessness is only a tragedy during Republican Presidencies…during Democratic regimes, its an opportunity to quality time with one’s family.
Same with treating terrorists…not treating battlefield combatants as innocent before proven guilty is a war crime to be punished…killing teenagers involved in pirate activity with sniper fire, before reading them their rights, a heroic act proving the President’s mettle.
What a joke the media has become.
As for surviving near catastrophe…the jury is still out on that…
The “green shoots” are illusions created by trillion dollar money pump, not real business activity.
That means I can go buy that new flat screen I wanted. If I can’t buy gas or make my house payment the Obomba administration will help me out. Happy days are here again.
Just what we needed, another lying ‘tard in the president’s office blowing smoke up are asses.
Buy guns and ammo.
in my little corner of the US (pop 2,974,859), U6 is at 17.7 and foreclosures were up 66% in June
Another BS report
If a company makes major layoffs, rids itself of unprofitable ventures, cuts R&D, and reduce prices and milks to death current product, can’t it’s numbers look good for a few quarters? This is irrational exuberance to me. This statement sounds more like a ploy to increase investments and increase consumer confidence. There is no consensus on this economy, in fact I don’t ever recall an economic expert consensus.
More spin from the Obama camp new world order elitists
Where ? What smoke ?
The politicians have done nothing in 40 years on major issues – oil dependence , illegal immigration except to pad their pockets and pork belly
Jobs ? Good incomes ? High paying jobs ?
Real wealth – while we have amassed huge debts while giving up our earning and wealth potentials
All the while Soros and his buddies keep their money offshore avoiding taxes to pay their fair dues
Now with bailouts we have diluted the real value of the US currency tons
I cannot see a better recipe for inflation – more $ for the same amount of wealth and earning potential – chasing the same amount of good
Have North Americans been fooled enough by all these lies and spin that we believe in the tooth fairy
Real waalth and substantially great incomes ?
Sliding toward the brink in slow motion …
What I’m wondering if this will permanently change the US economic outlook. Deficits as percentage of GDP has been growing pretty steadily since 1980 (with a brief reversal in the late 90′s). Can it be reversed if neither party seems capable of it? Will employment numbers ever recover even if the economy as a whole does?
If you look at graphs of economic activity everything has been straight down. Now maybe it stopped for a bit… this just doesn’t tell me anything concrete about the future. The dominant themes of economic activity are all dead. We don’t need lots of computers, lots of cars, lots of houses, or lots of cheap plastic stuff from China.
The market rally, which seems highly questionable, is not a substitute for economic activity. Demand for fuel, transportation, and goods is WAY down. Businesses are cannibalizing their inventories and staff which will make it more difficult for them to expand when demand comes back.
As for the market, there was a good piece last week that predicted the next major market event will take under 5 minutes to play out. When a majority of market activity is concentrated on time frames of a fraction of a second and passes through a handful of players… that is just not a firm foundation for anything.
The fire may be out but the trees and houses are still gone. The measure of a recovery should be how well we recover; when we can put everyone back on a solid economic foundation. The expensive band-aids are fine but what is done afterward to shore-up the recovery (like credit reform, insurance reform and Sarbanes-Oxley reform) is what really counts.
I am sure that higher taxes, more regulation, and dramatically increased energy prices will help business to speed along that recovery.
It’s like waking up in bizarro world.
Has the recent/current tumult been like a giant paver machine? Or will it be more like a Tsunami from the breaking of a major fault line with wave upon wave coming on shore to clean out the mess leaving a recovery of a barren wasteland?
Metaphors are useful tools when you choose the right one.
“In June, seven of the 10 indicators in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index pointed upward, including manufacturing hours worked and unemployment claims.”
1. are you going to believe these idiots?
2. the only correction is, that they FIRED enough people to show a profit.
3. for some ODD reason, this is like the STOCK MARKET got lazy for a couple years, and everything hit the Bottom.
4. Hit the bottom, and it show’d that MOST of the corps were Lying threw their collective TEETH.
5. the main problem with corps and the USA model is called “THE PLATEAU”. It can only go UP’ so far, and then EVERYTHING flattens out. The corps PUSHED that. And there are only a few ways to do that.
6. Until the rich understand, that The lower paid persons in this nation have NOTHING to do in playing THEIR GAMES. That “THE GAME” should only include THOSE RICH FOLKS. Its always going to hurt US/WE.
7. The stock market is SUPPOSED to reflect certain things about the companies/corps..
WHAT happened?
8. UNTIL the gov WRITES a Business plan and design that a CORP must do/make happen. The GOV will be screw’d and corps will March ALL OVER IT.
9. wouldnt you like 1 years wages from ANY of those idiots on top? you could retire for the rest of your life, and your childrens lives.
I have faith the American people will undo Obama/Democrat Socialism/Taxation/Anti Business climate by changing congress in 2010 and rolling everything they have done, back.
Undoing what Bernanke has done might be harder.
Then the job picture will improve.
I guess as long as Newsweek says it, it must be true.
I’ll have to ask the company I work for why they cut our pay last week.
“Newsweek” the great source for all things Obama. They stopped being a reputable source long ago.
Want the real scoop? Just listen to the latest Horowitz podcast. It’s not so rosy.
Alfred you are truly hung up on the pirates. Almost as much as ACORN. What was your happy ending? Should we have just let Captain what’s- his-name die? What happened to defending Americans at all costs, even if it means sacrificing principles (your torture stance).
Seems like you only have a hard on for violence when its your party or your god pulling the trigger.
#14
Alfred..
Umm, and what is the cost of a corp. killing itself? With Malfeasance and misfitted? And total LACK of any business sence?
WHY in HELL do/DID we save these assholes??
Even Business classes do NOT TEACH the crap that these corps are practicing.
And if you REALLY think about it, alittle Social/communism, IS A GOOD THING.
I think its Stupid that corps,
TAKE our money for over priced goods.
PAY us as little as possible.
GIVE to organizations and charities.
GET THE DISCOUNT/credit/tax deduction..
When giving to lower paid workers, MORE money means there will be MORE purchasing, and MORE given to charity AND the Poor get the discount/tax credit.
The economic chickens have come home to roost. The corporations have once again, with government complicity, shafted the public and greedily lapped up public money, and you myopic motherfuckers are engaged the party political blame game. The corp CEOs, and the Chinese for that matter, must be ROFL.
I agree with ECA. Its the corporate world (read corps + government) that is robbing us blind. Until these super-rich arseholes are dealt with, and I don’t see how without a bloody class war/revolution, we will continue it up the arse and give up our liberty to these fascists.
You could argue that socialism might redress theses issues, but sadly there not enough political will to resist this tide. Brave New World is here and it wants your soul.
Excluding Apple and Goldman Sacks, Companies made money because they cut costs to the bone including jobs.
Government spending is unlikely to do anything to help the recovery. That would have required a staggering tax cut and a few years.
The increase in minimum wage is going to be a blessing for some who don’t get their hours cut back or fired but the response is going to be an increase in prices to maintain profitability.
Cap and trade will drive up energy cost and that will cost jobs by increasing the cost of everything.
Even the Health Bill is going to cost private sector jobs while creating more government jobs.
I hope I’m wrong but the present may be situation normal for a few years.