Random Number Dept. — Twelve Year Old Catches Two Foul Balls in a Single At-bat

By Thursday August 20, 2009

This is ridiculous proof of the random number theory which shows things happen in clumps.



38 Comments
  1. ratmandu says:
    8/20/2009 at 11:18 pm

    Wow, lucky kid!

    Reply
  2. Simon says:
    8/20/2009 at 11:22 pm

    That’s not random. The batter is obviously trying to hit into a particular part of the field. It stands to reason that the balls are going to land in close proximity to each other.

    Reply
  3. bobbo, not to be ornery says:
    8/20/2009 at 11:25 pm

    “This is ridiculous proof of the random number theory which shows things happen in clumps.” /// If you are emphasizing “ridiculous”, I agree. If you are thinking this is proof, then you confuse example of with proof which it is not.

    The hitting of foul balls is not random at all and has nothing to do with number theory, random or otherwise.

    Now, random number theory does posit that what seem to be clusters of non-random numbers do appear in data steams at random locations. Quite a paradox that if random numbers did not cluster then they wouldn’t be random?

    Course, we haven’t defined cluster or clump or random. Different models/definitions treat them differently.

    Reply
  4. Jim The Fly says:
    8/20/2009 at 11:43 pm

    The strange thing is, this isn’t the first time I remember this happening. Probably about… maybe 15 years ago, a similar incident happened at Yankee Stadium. My memory is unclear whether it was Don Mattingly or Mike Pagliarulo who was batting, but they fouled a ball off to the 3rd base side. Someone in the front row of the upper deck reached for the ball, but it slipped from their grasp and fell to the lower tier. He got some boos for this happening. Later in the same at-bat (actually, I believe it was the very next pitch), another foul ball was hit. This one was caught by the very same fan who dropped the first one. So it DOES happen, but you’d have a better chance of seeing an unassisted triple play or a perfect game than seeing this.

    Reply
  5. j5ullivan says:
    8/21/2009 at 1:52 am

    The empty seats around the kid also makes the target much bigger than one person–on a more crowded day, the catch would have been less probable.

    Reply
  6. Uncle Patso says:
    8/21/2009 at 2:13 am

    I was flipping channels during a commercial break in whatever show I was watching and caught this report on ESPN.

    “Lucky kid.”

    He had his glove with him — to a certain degree he made his own luck! Louis Pasteur: “Chance favors the prepared mind.” Next time I go to a game, I’m taking my glove with me!

    Reply
  7. Uncle Patso says:
    8/21/2009 at 2:14 am

    (Note to self: buy a baseball glove…)

    Reply
  8. Special Ed says:
    8/21/2009 at 3:37 am

    I wear Umpire cologne, it’s for foul balls.

    Reply
  9. Someone Else says:
    8/21/2009 at 4:43 am

    #8 – Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey… Watch the umpire comments. ;)

    17 years behind the plate, thank you very much.

    Reply
  10. Amsterdamned says:
    8/21/2009 at 5:08 am

    Somebody oughta tell that kid: It’s downhill from here, son.

    Reply
  11. qb says:
    8/21/2009 at 5:09 am

    Way cool. Never heard of that before.

    Reply
  12. Mr. Fusion says:
    8/21/2009 at 5:33 am

    #4, Jim,

    So it DOES happen, but you’d have a better chance of seeing an unassisted triple play or a perfect game than seeing this.

    Well, my daughter had a solo triple play this summer. Playing third, bases loaded, she caught a fly, stepped on third because the runner had left, and then tagged the runner coming from second. The funny thing is I saw the almost exact same play happen last year with a team mate and the year before when my kid was called up to play with the next level.

    All three cases were near identical and about the same time of year. I attribute this partly to luck but mostly to the third baseman being skilled enough to catch the ball and smart enough to tag the base and base runner.

    Your point is very valid however. I’m just another dad proud of his kid. Did I mention her grand slams, …

    Reply
  13. Mr. Fusion says:
    8/21/2009 at 5:37 am

    #10, Amsterdamned

    Somebody oughta tell that kid: It’s downhill from here, son.

    Of course, the kid is in the third tier.

    Reply
  14. Angus says:
    8/21/2009 at 5:38 am

    Actually, the odds wouldn’t be THAT bad at a Pittsburgh Pirates game. With only two people there, odds are good the same person would catch it…

    Reply
  15. Mr. Fusion says:
    8/21/2009 at 5:46 am

    There is no “random number theory” that requires events happen in clumps.

    In order to be random, the event must be unrelated to all other events that have or will occur AND uninfluenced by any event. These two catches satisfy those requirements. Each hit was independent of the other hit.

    How many games have we seen the pitcher catch a line drive by holding his glove up in a defensive gesture? It happens. The ball is hit to a near identical spot on the field.

    Reply
  16. wirelessg says:
    8/21/2009 at 5:50 am

    nothing random about it

    -same batter
    -same pitcher
    -same environment
    -historical precedence for foul balls in that section
    -the fan was able to move around(he became almost 8 people in one)

    http://bit.ly/OWLMu

    Reply
  17. Alfred1 says:
    8/21/2009 at 6:13 am

    Glitch in the matrix.

    Reply
  18. Mr Diesel says:
    8/21/2009 at 6:13 am

    # 12 Mr. Fusion said,

    “Did I mention her grand slams, …”

    Does she spend a lot of time at Denny’s?

    (Yes, I’m sure you are a proud poppa.)

    ;-)

    Reply
  19. The more things change says:
    8/21/2009 at 6:51 am

    More over…the fact that this DOESN’T happen often, that this is the first time anyone remember this ever happening, out of hundreds of thousands, or millions of at bats, means that it’s just rare.

    You’ll notice this effect (emphasize the rare, ignore the others) occurs in a lot of life issues. Folks notice when there’s an odd event or coincidence, and ignore the million times it DIDN’T happen. Such as, “It must be a miracle! That child fell out a 5 story window and lived!” No, that’s just odds. You simply ignored the other 100,000 people that have fallen that far (out a window, cliff edge, ladder) who died. Repeat something enough times and you ALWAYS have an outlier. If you ONLY pay attention to the outlier, it’s a miracle.

    Reply
  20. Alex says:
    8/21/2009 at 7:27 am

    I am big fan of this blog, but since a couple of weeks a guy called Guilherme Cherman has been trolling posts on a daily basis. I have googled him and discover that is a brazilian teenager who has a site promoting a electronic book call “Ganhe Dinheiro Com Seu Blog – Guilherme Cherman” translated: make money with your blog, and is an idiotic manual of dirty tricks to catch clicks and make money with publicity. Please Mr Dvorak or Uncle Dave stop this nonsense.

    Reply

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