Swine flu could hospitalize 2 million in U.S. this winter — latimes.com — It could be this, it could be that. DO all these vague comments make us confident in these agencies?
As many as 300,000 could clog intensive care units in heavily affected regions, a new report says. But the CDC director notes that the H1N1 outbreak also could be much milder.
Nearly 2 million Americans could be hospitalized during this winter’s novel H1N1 influenza pandemic, with as many as 300,000 clogging intensive care units in heavily affected regions, according to a report released Monday by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.
Overall, 20% to 40% of the population could develop symptoms of the strain commonly known as swine flu, and 30,000 to 90,000 could die, according to the report. During a normal flu season, the virus kills about 35,000 Americans.
So, to summarize, they really have no clue.
Ha, ha==well done #20–McCullough (for short, but I do appreciate the humor of the crutch reference).
1. “how do you think they should handle those of us who may want to think for ourselves?” /// Well, that really is the crutch of the matter in that YOU AREN’T THINKING!!!!!!!!! Without scientific FACTS as the basis of your self and societal destructive antediluvian Luddite paranoid fantasies, you are emoting=not thinking.
I hope our government makes a rational assessment of the situation and without getting into a dick measuring contest, decides if the risk of those unvaccinated is dangerous enough ((ie–valid estimated death counts)) to warrant mandatory vaccinations, or lesser inducements only, or let the plague run its course.
I think you participated in the “no shitting in the public water supply” thread a few weeks ago?
Nothing has changed.
I still question why the CDC is being so gloom and doom and this. We have had strains of the flu in the past which have affected the US worse and heard much less from the CDC. This dooms day frenzy has fed on itself for so long. I am wondering what the amount of wasted money is going into these preparations? Other then Mexico other countries have faced little in terms of dramatic rises in terms of severe symptoms or deaths then any other strain. Unless their is more to this strain then anyone has said. I think we may be in for more sickness but then again maybe not. Looks as though their guessing.
Ironically, the 1917/18 flu epidemic hit the healthiest the hardest — their exceptionally strong immune response killed them. Seniors and children fared much better.
Epidemiologists fear something called “Passage” where the flu spends time mutating and cross-pollinating with itself, perhaps creating an exceptionally deadly, exceptionally contagious version of itself. In September 1917 the second wave of the flu hit (that’s about where we are right now) and a previously highly-contagious-low-severity flu turned into a killer. That may be what happens this time too.
Or not. There’s no mathematical proof to be had here — we’re rolling LOTS of dice.
This is a very-low-risk very-high-severity scenario and our government is preparing for it. That’s called prudence. Don’t underestimate this — it is a national security issue. In 1917 it was the US military that was hardest hit in the US, and the primary vector for the disease. We brought it to Europe and killed millions there.
In 1917, their advice was, “clean mouth, clean skin, clean clothes.” That was worthless. This time is different. No one is going to force you to get the vaccine, but when you come looking for it (and if it hits you will) the government is going to be where you turn for help.
Herd Immunity is what I’m hoping for. And yes there is ‘mathematical proof’ to be had on both sides — in the form of computational epidemiology and biostats — do a quick search of the EID journal. Its rather dense but informative.
I agree that the interaction between immunology and virology is complex, especially in terms of epidemiological studies. Those of us in public health often have to operate on incomplete information and make the ‘optiaml’ decision based upon the available data. Of course, there is no such thing as a 100% safe drug (or food for that matter). There is always an element of risk that is associated with a gain.
Do we have an attack or incidence rate for the current H1N1? Yes, albeit it is not inclusive for all cases.
Do we understand the H1N1 vector in the epidemiology triangle? Yes, for now (direct contact).
Does H1N1 have the lineaments of other rapidly mutating, highly infectious agents? Definitely yes on that one.
Will I be getting the novel H1N1 vaccine? Heck yes! Of course, I have no choice because the higher ups have deemed it necessary.
Share and enjoy
Also remember that there great concentrations of young men in cantonments (temporary or semi-permanent military quarters) getting ready to ship off to World War I. That is were the 1918 flu really got a head of steam. If you want to learn more read John Barry’s The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague In History. I would put a link to Amazon but I am afraid my post would get nuked.
#24–wumpus==with your expertise, if you had complete free choice:
1. Would you get the vaccine for yourself?
2. Would you require others to have it or not?
Do you know: can the risk of further mutations in the unvaccinated population be fairly made or it that an “existential question?”
#25
Cool book, I think the history channel made a short based upon it.
Purple Death
“I had a little bird
its name was Enza…
I opened the window
and in flew Enza…”
#26
In truth, I always get vaccinated because I have never really felt it was to my benefit to avoid them. I usually respond well to the seasonal flu vaccine — maybe a few sniffles last year, but otherwise it beats the heck out of hacking up a lung for 3 weeks every fall/winter.
I don’t think I am really qualified to make a statement about the mutagenic susceptibility of H1N1 (never stopped me before). Although the haphazard way in which viruses replicate themselves leads to many mutations, I don’t know if anyone has calculated the median amount of errors or strikes on the genetic structure is required before it gains a mutative property that would increase pathogenicity — that is a question for a highly paid immunologist or virologist.
I will get the shot.
I almost always get a flu shot — I got the infamous swine flue shot in 1976 when I was a teen and I’ve gotten them most years since.
The worst reaction was a slightly sore arm.
It strikes me as really weird that people are blasé about a potentially lethal LIVE flu virus but afraid of the harmless DEAD version.
#27–wumpus==thanks for your expertise. Nice to see some on display.
Just if you make it back and care to opine:
I expect a world wide plague of some sort to hit mankind==just a function of human density, time, increasing drug resistance and what not.
Is there smart money on such a thing “ever” happening, or if it happens it being most likely a common flu, or some more exotic virus, or just what? I’m looking for something that may not have hit the popular press–but is “real.”
>> bobbo, REALITY is a bitch said, on August 26th, 2009 at 9:11 am
>> If you want certainty, join Alfie ((HEY ALFIE)) in his religion–or pick any other religion.
>> Add “Discomfort with Ambiguity” to the list of why otherwise intelligent people turn to religion.
It seems like Alfred confirmed every ugly stereotype you have about religion!
Be aware, though, that most Christians are annoyed by guys like Alfred, too. As happens so often, highly conservative people often unleash their most virulent vitriol for fellow insiders who don’t toe the line.
You should also know that, perhaps ironically, many Christians love of the ambiguity of faith that makes religious experience rich. It’s the “scientific world view” which strikes as as too black-and-white.
Greg, too much to blog post about but its not the “extreme” religious, the bibble thumpers, that get me going. We both agree they are just nuts.
No, its people like YOU that upset me. Nice, reasonable, common sense people that I actually like. Its YOU I don’t like and for all the reasons you think should cause the reverse.
Have you ever bought a beautiful girl a drink and started a nice conversation with her only to find out she is a bigot or a NASCAR fan? Its really disgusting. You want her, she’s beautiful, but its oil and water.
Same with nice religious types.
“love of the ambiguity” the Malcolm Muggeridge smuggery based on failure to deal with the incongruities that prove the dogma to be nonsense or otherwise disproven. Its disgusting.
But yea, if I have to associate with the religious, I’d rather it be with the hypocrites, liars, befuddled and foolish rather than the bible thumpers.
That would be true of the scientific thumpers as well. The interesting questions in life are a mystery.
#27 I agree that there would seem to be an increase in factors contributing to possible pandemics. However, there are also other factors working to stop pandemics: sanitation, public health, and unknown environmental factors. Having worked in areas afflicted with endemic diseases I sincerely hope that there is not a pandemic anytime soon if ever; the experience is particularly heart-wrenching even for the most callous.
some think that the next “big one” will be caused by bacteria carrying a prophage, others champion the role of ‘in the wild’ viruses or prions, while a few others think environmental mutagens will be to blame. I’m not sure.
Anyone who is really interested in the research about infectious diseases, possible outbreaks, and the field of epidemiology and public health should check out the free journal Emerging Infectious Diseases published by the CDC. Don’t let the government publisher put you off, there are articles from pretty much every prestigious school of medicine around the world; and information on stuff that flies under the media’s radar. Funny that the CDC seems to be respected more in foreign countries than the USA.
Also, I don’t really consider myself an expert as I don’t even have my PhD yet — is there even an end!?
There is a large amount of free information and introductory texts on infectious diseases, and public health in general. Try to not take popular titles like “Demon in the Freezer” too seriously, fun but slightly sensationalist — need to sell books you know.
My favorite intro text is “Epidemiology” by Leon Gordis and the “Brock Biology of Microorganisms” Brock, Madigan et al (might need a little knowledge of organic chemistry for this one).
I might try and cajole one of the docs to post here; however most of them are overworked, afraid of litigation, and not technically savvy — “blog?? do you mean bog??”
Fundamentally all the possibilities boil down to risk management. Anything COULD be the next Pandemic but virtually everything likely will not. Influenza is one of the ones that has a track record for high impact, but like everything else it’s a roll of the dice. It has the building blocks available to it, but they need to be assembled in the right way to have powerful impact. That may or may not happen.
Libya doesn’t have a nuclear bomb. It’s unlikely that they will get one anytime soon. But you know what? We watch Libya very closely, not because it’s a likely event, but because of the severity of it should it occur. That’s analogous to H1N1 today. Given its potential severity, we need to be on our guard. That means vaccine. It needs to be prepared in advance and the community needs to be in a position to deliver it in short order should the need arise. Dvorak talks out his hat, but if things get ugly it’s fundamentally going to boil down to the decision that each of us makes personally.
I work in the field, though I’m on the math side not the Epi side. I’ll be getting the vaccine and my children will as well. This is a very simple decision to make in my opinion. I’m simply perplexed why, when the government is spending all our money of utter crap, that this is what people choose to get up tight about.
Sag.
#32–wumpus==thanks. I was thinking bacterium would be too easy to defeat so finding out about prophages will be interesting. Those fresh stream water flesh eating protozoa sound awesome. Why things like that just don’t “take over” is beyond me.
To give you the novice view, I think of sanitation and public health NOT as pandemic stoppers but as density contributors. ie==without those things, we would have smaller populations with smaller pandemics. Its only with the advent of sanitation and public health combined with known environmental factors ((eg-more food)) that unsupportable freakishly high densities of human flesh can be maintained to provide meat for the truly horrible world wide pandemic.
I don’t know what the unknown environmental factors are. (smile.)
Thanks for the reference:
http://cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/index.htm
#33
I guess I am on the nursing-computer science-epidemiology side. Public Health is truly an integrative discipline, we need more maths and CS folks.
Wow, bobbo, you have some issues.
The few times I’ve been allowed to fully understand the personal history of anti-religious bigots, there was some religious person who screwed them over, bad.
If that is your case, I am truly sorry. (for what that’s worth.)
My own religious group was horribly victimized by atheists — driven from our homes, imprisoned, starved, even murdered in an effort to purge society of the supposed cancer of our religion.
As I listened to these first-hand stories from our elderly about unimaginable hurt at the hands of atheists who considered themselves superior, I marveled at their ability to forgive and be free.
I’m not sure why I am telling you this except, perhaps, because you seem like a decent guy who maybe doesn’t understand that Christian-atheist conflict is a two-way street.
#36–Greg==I thought about it, and posted anyway. You see, as I stated, your response, right THERE in #36 is what irritates me. The waste of a brain turned to mush by what I can only assume IS this religion you claim to have.
I don’t need to have been “hurt” to develop this antithesis to ignorance. I’m just not coddling you. Just like Einstein.
* big·ot
* Pronunciation: \ˈbi-gət\
* Function: noun
* Etymology: French, hypocrite, bigot
* Date: 1660
: a person obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices; especially : one who regards or treats the members of a group (as a racial or ethnic group) with hatred and intolerance /// Well, its not race or ethnicity so is it still bigotry? If I am a bigot, then what are you? What is your god?? So, its not your membership in a group/any group I object to. Its the soul destroying stupidity of your belief system that dehumanizes man that I object to. Its not just religion, the same applies to all similar ignorant belief systems==politics, astrology, vegans, Mother Gaia, all sorts of things. Religion is just a very rough first filter. This was telegraphed when I equivocated between liking/not liking you. I’m much more open, yet closed, than a mere few hundred words can explain.
I assume you and I could get along quite well until . . . . x,y,z arose. I don’t know what subject would ruin us. Some disparaging remark about a gay person, some desired rule against a woman’s right to choose. I’ve never met a person who wanted to pray over food that didn’t also have something really disgusting they wanted to impose on their fellow man in the name of their good christian love.
I don’t have to experience the gulag to say I don’t want to experience the gulag. I can read. I can think. I can extrapolate.
This is SO STUPID I can’t believe you can’t stifle yourself and its why I dislike you: “you were victimized by atheists.” Yea, and thats why I am afraid of you. You discriminate against a whole group of people because of a label you choose to hang on them. Thats what religious people do. Not all religious people. Just the religious people I can’t stand.
“understand that Christian-atheist conflict is a two-way street.” /// I disagree. Its a one way street. People who believe they are the one and only way do evil to other people. Doesn’t matter if they are religious or atheist in their motivating ideology. Its the same mechanism. Believe as I say or I will punish you. Atheism hardly ever demands that submission for atheism alone==always for something else like collectivism or your land, money, military servitude==but not for atheism. Religion is almost always just exactly that. God for instance. Submit to me or burn forever.
I understand YOU, and in that understanding know that you don’t understand much of anything. It can be hidden it casual interactions. Get over 3 dozen words and the facade is usually cracked.
I mean this in the highest of mutual good will. There is a “surface” and a deeper appreciation. What do you really deeply think of people who ride pink unicorns? What do you really think of sublime mysteries???
Ignorance is to be avoided no matter how sweetly it is encouraged.
Sure they have a clue. If you are in fragile health the flue may kill you.
#38–do-ill==you’re talking regular flu. This flu is a worry because it favors the young and healthy–those 50 years and younger.
Knowledge is power.
Ignorance is . . . . . . .
Good basic SCIENTIFIC review of swine flu and fairly readable too. Course, it is a “government source” so tin hats should be strapped down tight.