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	<title>Comments on: Goldman Sachs Bet (ie, Knew) The Housing Crash Would Happen</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/</link>
	<description>General interest observations and true web-log.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 06:36:09 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Jay</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597319</link>
		<dc:creator>Jay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:05:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597319</guid>
		<description>You guys are making a sinister plot out of a typical case of one corporate hand doesn&#039;t know what the other is doing.

ANybody who has worked in corporate american knows the level of Keystone cops activity in a US corporation  is only exceeded by the keystone cop activity  US Government.

These guys companies count pull off this kind of &quot;Conspiracy&quot; if they wanted to.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You guys are making a sinister plot out of a typical case of one corporate hand doesn&#8217;t know what the other is doing.</p>
<p>ANybody who has worked in corporate american knows the level of Keystone cops activity in a US corporation  is only exceeded by the keystone cop activity  US Government.</p>
<p>These guys companies count pull off this kind of &#8220;Conspiracy&#8221; if they wanted to.</p>
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		<title>By: pedro</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597276</link>
		<dc:creator>pedro</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:30:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597276</guid>
		<description>#23 I can resume your post in one word: change</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#23 I can resume your post in one word: change</p>
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		<title>By: chuck</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597255</link>
		<dc:creator>chuck</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:37:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597255</guid>
		<description>Goldman Sachs would have never been able to sell these &quot;securities&quot; without the insurance companies guaranteeing their value. Thus the &quot;moral hazard&quot;: it didn&#039;t matter what the actual value of the security was, it only mattered that the insurance company (and the ratings companies) said it had value. (Kinda like government issued carbon credits.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Goldman Sachs would have never been able to sell these &#8220;securities&#8221; without the insurance companies guaranteeing their value. Thus the &#8220;moral hazard&#8221;: it didn&#8217;t matter what the actual value of the security was, it only mattered that the insurance company (and the ratings companies) said it had value. (Kinda like government issued carbon credits.)</p>
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		<title>By: Grumski</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597210</link>
		<dc:creator>Grumski</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:43:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597210</guid>
		<description>Now I know why the new head of the SEC came from GoldmanS.., to ward of any possible investigtion into securities fraud. Where&#039;s the outrage?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Now I know why the new head of the SEC came from GoldmanS.., to ward of any possible investigtion into securities fraud. Where&#8217;s the outrage?</p>
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		<title>By: bobbo, international pastry chef and financial expert</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597184</link>
		<dc:creator>bobbo, international pastry chef and financial expert</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:10:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597184</guid>
		<description>Not regulated huh?  As I understand it, parts of whatever it is you want to talk about were regulated, and parts weren&#039;t.

The AAA Mortgage backed securities that were closer to junk bonds got those ratings thru regulated rating agencies.  They all committed a type of fraud.

You can bet against the housing bubble, and you can buy into the bubble and both are legal.  Its only illegal when you do both===especially when you do the first with your money and the second with other people&#039;s money.

So many things really are crystal clear here including the fact that no one has gone to jail other than those who confessed, the bubble is being rebuilt, laws to prevent this in the future are being avoided in favor of laws that will mandate this all happens again.

Yes, all very plain to see.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not regulated huh?  As I understand it, parts of whatever it is you want to talk about were regulated, and parts weren&#8217;t.</p>
<p>The AAA Mortgage backed securities that were closer to junk bonds got those ratings thru regulated rating agencies.  They all committed a type of fraud.</p>
<p>You can bet against the housing bubble, and you can buy into the bubble and both are legal.  Its only illegal when you do both===especially when you do the first with your money and the second with other people&#8217;s money.</p>
<p>So many things really are crystal clear here including the fact that no one has gone to jail other than those who confessed, the bubble is being rebuilt, laws to prevent this in the future are being avoided in favor of laws that will mandate this all happens again.</p>
<p>Yes, all very plain to see.</p>
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		<title>By: GF</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597172</link>
		<dc:creator>GF</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:29:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597172</guid>
		<description>The point is that none of this was regulated, it fell outside the jurisdiction of the SEC and CFTC.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The point is that none of this was regulated, it fell outside the jurisdiction of the SEC and CFTC.</p>
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		<title>By: Cursor_</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597165</link>
		<dc:creator>Cursor_</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:59:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597165</guid>
		<description>And the same thing is starting up with life insurance policies.

So what will you do about it now?

Cursor_</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And the same thing is starting up with life insurance policies.</p>
<p>So what will you do about it now?</p>
<p>Cursor_</p>
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		<title>By: Money Managers ?</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597150</link>
		<dc:creator>Money Managers ?</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:32:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597150</guid>
		<description>There seems to be little ethics at all in the &quot;financial industry&quot;
Simple as that 
Woody Allen&#039;s comment in the 1960&#039;s that stock brokers were professionals who invested your money till it is all gone
What a bunch of self serving crooks</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There seems to be little ethics at all in the &#8220;financial industry&#8221;<br />
Simple as that<br />
Woody Allen&#8217;s comment in the 1960&#8217;s that stock brokers were professionals who invested your money till it is all gone<br />
What a bunch of self serving crooks</p>
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		<title>By: chris</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597130</link>
		<dc:creator>chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 10:52:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597130</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m not convinced that this is fraud. There are derivatives that countries will default on obligations too. Take the TARP and then profit on bets against US insolvency. 

Getting your ex-employees to make sure you get your &quot;insurance&quot; paid off is also distasteful, but whatever. 

My big qualm is why the taxpayer is funding and backstopping this activity. The huge money used to do these deals is now done with, nearly, free money provided by the gov&#039;t. As long as you make more than .5% you make a profit, and if you make a big loss you can always go back and get more. 

The biggest necessary step is to reimpose Glass-Steagall. Deposit taking banks need to be protected, but investment banks need to be risking their own dollars. I would also like to see these institutions be forced back into a partnership model, where the traders bacon was really on the block. Goldman made plenty of money under the old ways. When ultimate risk belongs to the shareholders or, today, taxpayers things start to get a bit hinky.

Can any committed free marketeer explain to me how forcing investment banks to face real market discipline constitutes socialism?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not convinced that this is fraud. There are derivatives that countries will default on obligations too. Take the TARP and then profit on bets against US insolvency. </p>
<p>Getting your ex-employees to make sure you get your &#8220;insurance&#8221; paid off is also distasteful, but whatever. </p>
<p>My big qualm is why the taxpayer is funding and backstopping this activity. The huge money used to do these deals is now done with, nearly, free money provided by the gov&#8217;t. As long as you make more than .5% you make a profit, and if you make a big loss you can always go back and get more. </p>
<p>The biggest necessary step is to reimpose Glass-Steagall. Deposit taking banks need to be protected, but investment banks need to be risking their own dollars. I would also like to see these institutions be forced back into a partnership model, where the traders bacon was really on the block. Goldman made plenty of money under the old ways. When ultimate risk belongs to the shareholders or, today, taxpayers things start to get a bit hinky.</p>
<p>Can any committed free marketeer explain to me how forcing investment banks to face real market discipline constitutes socialism?</p>
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		<title>By: Jim</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597110</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 08:24:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597110</guid>
		<description>... so they did an &quot;investigation&quot; that was described in the Washington Post early this year?  Good to know reporters can find out the same things that were already found out by others.   

The methodology they used was to have different tiers of risk, whereby the least risky were used to shore up the other tiers and make their grades better.  AIG screwed up by insuring the grades with the assumption that the overall pie was solid.  However, the whole thing was based on assumptions of continuing equity increases in the market and relatively low foreclosure rates, which is why it started falling apart so quickly.

Sachs and some of the others decided at one point that they didn&#039;t have the balls to continue the bets and started selling things off quietly to pull their capital back.  

In any case, there is blame for everyone involved, including the mortgagees.  If you&#039;re stupid enough to take a mortgage that you KNOW you can&#039;t pay after a year or so unless you can sell the house for a profit, you deserve to lose everything you own.

The only people I have real compassion for are those who worked hard to keep up their payments and do the right thing --- they are the ones getting screwed, as opposed to the asses that ran from their obligations as soon as they could.

I am mostly disgusted at the underwriters though... there are long-term formulae for risk determination with all this, and they decided to ignore them.  The government is bailing them out and we&#039;ll end up hurting for probably a decade because of it.   If an engineer did crap like that they&#039;d lose their cert, be fired AND be sued up the ass.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8230; so they did an &#8220;investigation&#8221; that was described in the Washington Post early this year?  Good to know reporters can find out the same things that were already found out by others.   </p>
<p>The methodology they used was to have different tiers of risk, whereby the least risky were used to shore up the other tiers and make their grades better.  AIG screwed up by insuring the grades with the assumption that the overall pie was solid.  However, the whole thing was based on assumptions of continuing equity increases in the market and relatively low foreclosure rates, which is why it started falling apart so quickly.</p>
<p>Sachs and some of the others decided at one point that they didn&#8217;t have the balls to continue the bets and started selling things off quietly to pull their capital back.  </p>
<p>In any case, there is blame for everyone involved, including the mortgagees.  If you&#8217;re stupid enough to take a mortgage that you KNOW you can&#8217;t pay after a year or so unless you can sell the house for a profit, you deserve to lose everything you own.</p>
<p>The only people I have real compassion for are those who worked hard to keep up their payments and do the right thing &#8212; they are the ones getting screwed, as opposed to the asses that ran from their obligations as soon as they could.</p>
<p>I am mostly disgusted at the underwriters though&#8230; there are long-term formulae for risk determination with all this, and they decided to ignore them.  The government is bailing them out and we&#8217;ll end up hurting for probably a decade because of it.   If an engineer did crap like that they&#8217;d lose their cert, be fired AND be sued up the ass.</p>
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		<title>By: Chris Mac</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597101</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris Mac</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 07:37:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597101</guid>
		<description>http://oddtodd.com/index2.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://oddtodd.com/index2.html" rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"></a><a href='http://oddtodd.com/index2.html' rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://oddtodd.com/index2.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: pedro</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597090</link>
		<dc:creator>pedro</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 06:50:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597090</guid>
		<description>#13 Want to see how many bankers are lawyers?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#13 Want to see how many bankers are lawyers?</p>
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		<title>By: deowll</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597076</link>
		<dc:creator>deowll</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 06:00:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597076</guid>
		<description>The ethics of a snake but much smarter than Barney Frank or Nancy P who were saying lend, lend, lend to those in need to Freddy and Fanny right up till they turned belly up.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The ethics of a snake but much smarter than Barney Frank or Nancy P who were saying lend, lend, lend to those in need to Freddy and Fanny right up till they turned belly up.</p>
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		<title>By: Micromike</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597062</link>
		<dc:creator>Micromike</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 05:29:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597062</guid>
		<description>Maybe we should kill all the bankers first, instead of the lawyers, as Shakespeare suggested. Then, I say, we get the war profiteers (Halliburton et al) who took billions in the Iraq war and wrap up with the lawyers.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maybe we should kill all the bankers first, instead of the lawyers, as Shakespeare suggested. Then, I say, we get the war profiteers (Halliburton et al) who took billions in the Iraq war and wrap up with the lawyers.</p>
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		<title>By: pedro</title>
		<link>http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2009/11/02/goldman-sachs-bet-ie-knew-the-housing-crash-would-happen/comment-page-1/#comment-1597053</link>
		<dc:creator>pedro</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 04:38:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=61808#comment-1597053</guid>
		<description>#9 Actually, he got made because he felt &quot;guilty&quot; and started a confession rampage. Which is even sadder if you think about it. He wasn&#039;t caught, he was just talking so much that it would have looked stupid not to prosecute him.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#9 Actually, he got made because he felt &#8220;guilty&#8221; and started a confession rampage. Which is even sadder if you think about it. He wasn&#8217;t caught, he was just talking so much that it would have looked stupid not to prosecute him.</p>
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