Believe it or not, there are some potential benefits to the United States should Iran build a bomb. (I’m speaking for myself here, and in no way for the Air Force.) Five possibilities come to mind.
First, Iran’s development of nuclear weapons would give the United States an opportunity to finally defeat violent Sunni-Arab terrorist groups like Al Qaeda. Here’s why: a nuclear Iran is primarily a threat to its neighbors, not the United States. Thus Washington could offer regional security — primarily, a Middle East nuclear umbrella — in exchange for economic, political and social reforms in the autocratic Arab regimes responsible for breeding the discontent that led to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
Until now, the Middle East autocracies have refused to change their ways because they were protected by the wealth of their petroleum reserves. A nuclear Iran alters the regional dynamic significantly, and provides some leverage for us to demand reforms.
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What about the downside — that an unstable, anti-American regime would be able to start a nuclear war? Actually, that’s less of a risk than most people think. Unless the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, and his Guardian Council chart a course that no other nuclear power has ever taken, Iran should become more responsible once it acquires nuclear weapons rather than less. The 50-year standoff between the Soviet Union and the United States was called the cold war thanks to the deterrent effect of nuclear weapons.
RTFA. Its an interesting angle. I’m not so sure a ‘renaissance of American influence in the Middle East’ is all that beneficial though. America should just get out of the region IMHO.
“a nuclear Iran is primarily a threat to its neighbors, not the United States” – insanity. Iran have proven again and again that it will give any advanced arms it has to the terrorists form Afghanistan, through Iraq to Palestinians. With primary target either Israelis or USA armed forces. Hundreds of US soldiers have died from advanced armor piercing roadside bombs manufactured in Iran. Proven fact. What prevents them to give a nuke to some nuts who can send it to any major US city via container ship? Trivial. USA and Israel are main targets. Local Arab countries secondary ones.
“Unless the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, and his Guardian Council chart a course that no other nuclear power has ever taken, Iran should become more responsible once it acquires nuclear weapons rather than less” – another insanity. No time in the past have religious zealots who feel that they have religious duty to “wash the Earth in blood” had a nuclear bomb. Even Pakistani regime is mostly pragmatic military based, interested in a local issues with India, not blowing up the World. Danger is specific religious strain that is in ruling position in Iran. Ahmad-jad is repeating that exact idea on and on,… it is time we take his (and his superiors) intents for real and not imagine the as rational humans, which they are not.
If he’s right, this would be a disaster. The US needs to become less involved and less a central player in the world, not more. We have nothing to offer than any country in the mideast wants (except possibly Israel). The hatred the whole region has for us is based on our constant meddling and involvement in an area we do not understand.
If Iran gets the bomb, we should start removing ourselves from the region (and I hope Obama will continue his humble stance and downgrade the world’s expectations of us). We should pull out of Iraq immediately and Afghanistan soon after. Our presence surrounding Iran is what pushes them to develop weapons to defend themselves. If we were not there, they would not be doing this.
We should not worry about what the bomb means to other countries; it’s not out fight. Israel can defend itself with its own illegal bombs, and the other countries are not our problem.
The best result will be the US getting serious about alternative energy and leaving the rest of the world alone.
With middle east there would be no American superpower.
Their oil is that important, hence America can not just walk out of the middle east.
He forgot to mention that it will start a nuclear arms race in the middle east. KSA will want some in which THEY have they button, not the US. Iraq will want some. Turkey will want some.
And as mentioned, many of the Hamas and Hezbolah (both sponsored by Iran) nutters wouldn’t think twice about lobbing one into Israel from Lebanon or Gaza.
Mutual Assured Destruction won’t work here. Once multiple states get them, and Iran gives one to a group to detonate inside the US, who do we retaliate against? No one will claim responsibility since doing so will be suicide.
The ONLY way MAD would work with a nuclear Iran is let let every middle east nation know that we hold them all collectively responsible. Thus, if we are nuked, we will take out ALL the ME states. It is not fair, but it is the only way it can work.
“Washington could offer regional security in exchange for … reforms”
HAR!! Does anyone truly believe we care about reforms? As long as they don’t bomb us and we can get their oil…
Morn, we are not going to be a superpower for long….the days of the American Empire are over. We need to find alternative energy sources and reduce our arrogant demands on the rest of the world.
China is the rising power, we are the declining one. It would be better for us to pull back our reach and reorganize our economy to be more self-sufficient. Otherwise we end up like the UK or France, embarrassingly overstretched and losing face every time another of our former clients realizes we are a paper tiger.
The US era is over, get used to it. And don’t hope for some reason to try and remain the big dog in the Mideast, it’ll only make it worse.
Too bad Iran is nowhere near a bomb. You have to get 90% enrichment level and they barely can do 20%.
If they really wanted one they could have just called up Kim Jong Il and he would have delivered a care package of enriched uranium or plutonium ready to shape into weapons.
Iran is not really concerned about America or Israel anyway, it fears looking weak in the eyes of the incredibly hostile Sunni-dominated arab nations around them, and some of them have USA support, USA weapons, and USA backing.
“autocratic Arab regimes responsible for breeding the discontent that led to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.”
I’m sure the article author meant to say “autocratic American regimes responsible for breeding the discontent that led to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001″
This angle isn’t mine, but I believe it- If Iran is to be “promoted” to a modern, developed state, it must eventually be allowed to have nukes, like the rest of us have.
I don’t know? Sounds like the same sort of twisted thinking that put us in bed with the former Shah of Iran, Saddam Hussan, Osama bin Laden and others, which all back-fired on us in the end…
Who are you kidding? You can’t possibly afford another war. The US is on the verge of complete economic collapse like Russia, before the wall came down. Another front would tip the US over the edge.
The cold war was a stand-off between the combined forces of the free world against soviet led marxist totalitarianism, not a superbowl between the USA against the Ruskies. A nuclear Iran is a target, anyone who presumes otherwise is an idiot, a liar or a fool.
#8 Zybch
No use trying to reason with a patriot. All a patriot needs is another excuse to send his kids to war. It’s important to vilify the enemy and then later beat him into submission, – to protect american interests abroad.
OTOH, nuclear arms control is important, perhaps even more than protecting american interests abroad. But how the heck to negotiate with people who you’ve been provoking?
This entire thing is 110% the fault of the US….we propped up the Shah and have been threatening and opposing Iran ever since the Revolution.
They want nukes for the very reasonable task of defending themselves against the US and Israel (the first rogue “nation” to build illegal nukes).
I hope they test-detonate one tomorrow as a demonstration that the US is powerless against a truly free people with backbone.
@thingsthatmakemego I’m Australian, and certainly the last thing I want is for China to take America’s place as world leader.
That would be very bad for us.
Best case scenario is EU rises and works more effectly together with the USA as a team, rather than Europe being like they are today, which is sometimes they follow the leader and most of the time don’t know what they are doing.
I’ll just say, in all of this Australia has the most to lose, being a lone western country just off China and India. And well, America has always been the perfect country to be superpower from our point of view.
Like other respondents, my first thought was “Israel”, and I expected the article to say a bit more than it did.
“Third, Israel has made clear that it feels threatened by Iran’s nuclear program. The Palestinians also have a reason for concern, because a nuclear strike against Israel would devastate them as well. This shared danger might serve as a catalyst for reconciliation between the two parties, leading to the peace agreement that has eluded the last five presidents. ”
No. The way it looks to me, the events of the last decades, in Israel & Palestine, have shown that the main Arab states (such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia) and Iran (which is not Arab) have little or no solidarity with the Palestinians, and regard them as little more than human shields against Israel. They would regard “massive Palestinian casualties” as an acceptable price to pay for the destruction of Israel. Their ideology dictates what they will do, not such concerns as casualties on the ground.
Iran throws its own people on the scrap heap. They don’t understand talent assembly and capital deployment. In other words, they are freaking nuts. As oil prices become depressed they become desperate freaking nuts and they are suicidal for allah. You go from burning in a jet fuel fire to nuclear explosions. We still have first strike capacity, so it won’t help them to have nukes.
Sorry Morn, but the world has long wanted the US to go away and leave them alone, and that’s what’s happening under Obama. Australia should never have been such a close ally with a faraway superpower.
Australia had better start learning Chinese and cutting the best deal you can…the West is waning.
#17-thingsthatmakemego-Australia had better start learning Chinese and cutting the best deal you can…the West is waning.
Be careful what you wish for… then again you are clearly one who squats when you pee.
You should save time and move to China. They will love you there…
Dr Dodd, it’s reality. You can insult all you want, but it won’t affect the reality that the US is on the way down.
Don’t think I like this or wish for it, but I can’t deny it and won’t try to cover it up with macho talk. While the US has been a FAR greater force for good in the world than bad, we always treated others as vassals or junior partners, and that kept the world mad at us. Even our allies resented us.
This resentment made its way into the universities and the culture at large, and now the US has elected a Prez who pretty much agrees with the European Left’s view of us. We are getting what we voted for…a dismantling of the US empire.
In a sad way that’s good, as we in the west no longer have the cultural strength to defend ourselves, or even maintain our population. It’s better to have a slow unilateral withdrawal than to have things fall apart quickly and unpredictably.
So the realistic thing to do is to make the best deals you can with the power that is clearly set for being the world’s biggest superpower.
I won’t be moving to China….I long ago moved to a country where day-to-day freedoms are still greater than in the self-hating, PC, lawyer-infested US….and the Chinese aren’t going to invade, they’re going to our-produce, out-grow and out-think us. The US lifestyle is not going to change much for the average prole, and as long as they have Farmville and American Idol and can buy Happy meals, they’ll bitch, but do nothing.