Let’s be serious for a moment: Barack Obama will not bomb Iran. This is not because he is a liberal, or because he is a peacenik, or because he doesn’t have the guts to try and “save his presidency” in this time-honored manner, as Daniel Pipes has urged and Sarah Palin said she would like him to do.
The president will not bomb Iran’s nuclear installations for precisely the same reasons that George W. Bush did not bomb Iran’s nuclear installations: Because we don’t know exactly where they all are, because we don’t know whether such a raid could stop the Iranian nuclear program for more than a few months, and because Iran’s threatened response — against Israelis and U.S. troops, via Iranian allies in Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine and Lebanon — isn’t one we want to cope with at this moment. Nor do we want the higher oil prices that would instantly follow. No American president doing a sober calculation would start a war of choice now, while U.S. troops are actively engaged on two other fronts, and no American president could expect public support for more than a nanosecond.
But even if Obama does not bomb Iran, that doesn’t mean that no one else will. [...] The defining moment of his presidency may well come at 2 a.m. some day when he picks up the phone and is told that the Israeli prime minister is on the line: Israel has just carried out a raid on Iranian nuclear sites. What then? [...] Although they keep all options on the table, they have so far concluded that bombing raids aren’t worth the consequences.
At some point, that calculation could change. Because Americans often assume that everyone else perceives the world the way we do, it is worth repeating the obvious here: Many Israelis regard the Iranian nuclear program as a matter of life and death.
Amused to see that an ad for a “Muslim Matrimonial” site appears on the same page as the survey results. Planned or part of the Anti-Great Satan conspiracy?
#20 Take a deep breath, change your Depends, and get a grip. We had the huge and powerful Soviet Union pointing thousands of nuclear warheads at us for decades and we managed to survive.
North Korea has nuclear weapons, and they haven’t used them against us.
Just calm down, crawl out from under your desk, and let the adults do that diplomacy thing that has worked so well in the past, OK?
It is assumed that once Iran obtains nuclear weapons they would immediately use them on Israel and the USA. So far, no country that has obtained nuclear weapondry has used them on another country except the USA.
With all this talk about how bad it would be for Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, this proves that Iran will have great bargaining power once they do announce they have nuclear weapons.
Would Iran be ignorant enough to blow all that bargaining power away by immediately attacking countries?
It’s amazing that nobody has brought up the fact that Iran has no plans to build nuclear bombs. They would like to come into the same century as the rest of us and have nuclear power. The bomb story line was created by Israel and the US. They have even said they would welcome UN observers to inspect their operations to ensure they are only using them for power supply. The US, (as a puppet of Israel) ignores Iran’s invites to inspect their operations by saying “we will not carry on any dialogue with terrorist nations”. Iran is like the little kid in the school yard who the bully has decided he wants to beat up: no matter what the kid does or says, the bully has set his mind on beating him up…. and all the stupid people keep believing what they see on CNN…..poor lost souls.
#23 Good point, bac. And as many have pointed out: The only member of the “Axis of Evil” (sheesh) that Cheney didn’t see fit to pick on was North Korea… the one with nuclear weapons. And we wonder why these countries are trying so hard to get nukes?
Need another option – Can’t we just use the earthquake machine mentioned in NoAgenda on Iran?
The concern over nuclear weapons is misplaced. If they get nuclear bombs then what? Who are they likely to bomb? Israel? Guess what, they probably already have enough conventional missiles to flatten the country. The only difference would be radiation. Which way do the prevailing winds go in the middle east? Is Iran upwind from Israel or downwind?
“The president will not bomb Iran’s nuclear installations for precisely the same reasons that George W. Bush did not bomb Iran’s nuclear installations: Because we don’t know exactly where they all are,…”
Intelligence fail! Why don’t we know?
Mr Research#24, you have a real good point. The logical next step is to take a look at what they are doing and find out if Iran is set up for making weapons grade or reactor grade material, and take it from there. If it is reactor grade, we can taunt them for using that questionable technology when they sure don’t have to. If it’s weapons grade, well that’s the last straw — we blockade the Persian Gulf until the assorted fools in the region start seeing things our way.
#28 — The USA is good at Intelligence Fail. Did you ever here about the convincing evidence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction?
#27 — The prevailing winds could carry the radiation over Saudi Arabia, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. May be even as far as India and China.
That’s a total waste of time, as this has already happened as well as a general war and invasion. I learned this from Seymour Hersh and the editors of dvorak.org who told us this was going to happen years ago.
No matter what happens the USA will get the blame even if we do not bomb them and someone else does. Even if we don’t support the bombing the USA will still get the blame.
#24 Just tell me you’re that dumb on purpose.
#26 No, that would be too obvious. Wait until is perfected before using it on Iran.
Holy shit. A MAJORITY of DU users opposed to carrying forward with a BAD IDEA?
Did they replace everyone with paid trolls this morning?!?
#34 Strange isn’t it Max? Maybe there’s hope after all…
Nixon went to China.
Americans. Always with the bombs….
I was completely convinced that Bush II would attack Iran before leaving office. Obama is looking to be startlingly similar to the GOP, so I guess he might do it.
It would be a very bad thing, as #5 so ably pointed out. I would modify and extend some of those points though.
Iran is not primarily dangerous because of its potential nukes or oil, but because of the influence it has on regional energy transport. Since the region supplies both Europe and Asia I don’t think the US wants to mount a challenge here.
The reform movement in Iran is important, but the country is more stable than Twitter would indicate. Most of the demonstrators are mad that the mullahs are intruding on their personal expression. There seems to be general support of Iran’s foreign policy objectives. The idea that Iran should be a major regional player is reasonable because they are a very old continuous civilization. What that means is that the citizens were willing to step up over the span of thousands of years.
Lastly, Iran wants to deal. They are very smart and aware of their place in the great scheme.
#36: Unfortunately, he came back.
If they decide to do this use missiles. Don’t have anyone near their borders. If possible send it in from an unexpected direction and if possible try to make sure no clearly identifiable fragments are found. Let them loudly proclaim who did it but don’t bother to claim it.
If accused simply say, “I can understand how they would think that though it might be prudent to remember we aren’t the only people that make missiles and a lot of people aren’t necessarily all that happy with the kind of threats the government of Iran has been making.”