Update: Obama is back on top in the latest Gallup poll!

Time Magazine – Mark Halperin – Saturday March 22, 2008:

1. She can’t win the nomination without overturning the will of the elected delegates, which will alienate many Democrats.

2. She can’t win the nomination without a bloody convention battle — after which, even if she won, history and many Democrats would cast her as a villain.

3. Catching up in the popular vote is not out of the question — but without re-votes in Florida and Michigan it will be almost as impossible as catching up in elected delegates.

4. Nancy Pelosi and other leading members of Congress don’t think she can win and want her to give up. Same with superdelegate-to-the-stars Donna Brazile.

5. Obama’s skilled, close-knit staff can do things like silently kill re-votes in Florida and Michigan and not pay a political price.

6. Many of her supporters — and even some of her staffers — would be relieved (and even delighted) if she quit the race; none of his supporters or staff feel that way. Some think she just might throw in the towel in June if it appears efforts to fight on would hurt Obama’s general election chances.

7. The Rev. Wright story notwithstanding, the media still wants Obama to be the nominee — and that has an impact every day.

8. Obama might not be able to talk that well about the new global economy, but she (and McCain) can’t either.

9. Many of the remaining prominent superdelegates want to be for Obama and she (and Harold Ickes) are just barely keeping them from making public commitments to him.

10. She can’t publicly say more than 2% of all the things she would like to say about race, electability, beating McCain and experience.

11. If she somehow found a way to win the nomination, she would have to offer Obama the veep slot, and she doesn’t want to do that.

12. This is a change election, and Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton can never truly be change.

13. Obama is having fun most days, and she isn’t.

14. Even though her campaign staff is having more fun than it has for a long time, there’s hardly anyone there who, given half a chance, wouldn’t slit Mark Penn’s throat — and such internal dissension won’t help her in the home stretch.

  1. NappyHeadedHo says:

    They had me at, “she can’t win.”

  2. Improbus says:

    If she can’t be President no Democrat can. I loath her.

  3. Dallas says:

    I am starting to agree. I’m an avid Hillary supporter but would welcome an Obama victory.

    At this point, it does seem she is undermining the ability of the democratic party to victory against McCain.

    It’s sad. Now that Bush and McCain are staring to suck face on the White House lawn to show solidarity, the GOP is gaining strength. Meanwhile, Hil and Barak are comparing dicks on who would be the better prez.

    I say, it’s time for Hil to backoff. This is getting scary. While I like McCain, he represents the evil party that will run him over.

  4. Cinaedh says:

    Oh goody!

    The major media has buried her again for the hundredth time this year but I’ll bet they forgot, as usual, to drive a stake though her heart.

    On this Easter Sunday morning, I look forward to Hillary rising up from out of the dirt once again, seeking brains. Good luck with that one, Hillary!

    I suppose the major media will eventually figure out they have to stake her down and they also need to shovel a lot faster but this ‘rising from the dead’ trick has been very entertaining so far this year.

  5. jbenson2 says:

    Time wants Hillary to quit so they can stop covering the on-going battle and start writing glowing over the top articles about the messiah.

    But there is no reason for Hillary to quit now. She might as well wait for the results in Pennsylvania to be posted. That will increase her bargaining power at the Denver convention.

    Obama will eventually win the Primary, but will lose the General election.

    According to yesterday’s polls, John McCain continues to lead both potential Democratic opponents.

    McCain leads Barack Obama 49% to 41%
    McCain leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 43%

  6. BertDawg says:

    “Crap!!! I stayed with Bill, for NOTHING!”

  7. joaoPT says:

    They had me at Nr. 8:
    “8. Obama might not be able to talk that well about the new global economy, but she (and McCain) can’t either.”
    The next American President will be required, as the “leader of the free world” to police the world. But alas He or She whoever may be will not know a rat’s ass of what will be doing.
    Expect further devaluation of the dollar and deepening of the financial crisis for the next 4 to 8 years. (anyway all will be over in 2012…google it)

  8. ArianeB says:

    I’m not sure I agree with reason number 7. The more liberal press supports Obama, the conservative press (Fox News especially) clearly wants Clinton to get the nomination.

    I would replace reason 7 with what #5 said. The constant infighting is only increasing the likelihood of President McCain

  9. Chauvinist says:

    They forgot #15 – She’s a woman!

  10. RTaylor says:

    She can’t win now, because she can’t attack him. Don’t underestimate the race factor when you get away from the liberal coasts. I’m still unsure how he can sell himself to the white middle class in the general. Prejudice is one thing people will lie about in polls and in public. It will be an interesting Fall. What the economy is doing will be a big part, and that’s still unforeseen. McCain isn’t doing himself any favors hanging around the White House with W’s arm around him.

  11. Oversimplify says:

    So it’s the format war all over again.

    Hillary appears to be HD-DVD, while Obama seems to be going the way of the Blu-ray.

    If either quits now, it is better for the party.

  12. Ah_Yea says:

    Hillary will never give up, she has been working on becoming Pres. for most of her adult life. Her reason to exist is to become Pres.
    She put up with Bill’s quirks and his infidelities for all these years so she could have her day.

    Therefore her ego will never allow her to go quietly into the sunset.

    The only possible exception is if there is an “understanding” between her, Obama, and the SuperDelegates that she will get the nod to be the Dem’s candidate in 8 years.

    I don’t see that happening.

  13. MikeN says:

    Let’s just sum it up as ‘Hillary please leave, we don’t like you.’

    Hillary has already caught Obama in the popular vote, until he regained it with his last 2 wins. Right now she is down about 80,000 votes. So she could end up being the winner in popular votes and electoral votes, and still lose the nomination. That’s what happened to Andrew Jackson.

  14. Cursor_ says:

    It doesn’t matter who gets the nod now.

    McCain will win again either one of these two.

    The democrats only hopes were in an Edwards/Obama tix or an Edwards/Richardson tix.

    Its over folks.


  15. Mister Mustard says:

    >>Let’s just sum it up as ‘Hillary please
    >>leave, we don’t like you.

    If we were going to sum things up like that, Dumbya the Douchebag would have been gone 10 minutes after it became clear that his trophy war was a costly abortion, waged to placate the hatemongers and funnel Big Buck$ into the pockets of his friends, the War Profiteers.

    McCain’s not half bad (and the hatred loser lunatics like Anal Cyst Limbaugh heaps on him only makes him more popular), but I doubt he can overcome the baggage of 8 years of rule by the Retard in Chief and his puppetmasters, Cheney/ Rove.

  16. Bryan Price says:

    @Cursor_, McCain winning is far from a settled thing. He’s going to be fighting a souring economy which history shows favors the Democrats, especially if it’s still “The Economy, stupid.”

    The second strike is that he favors continuing the war in Iraq. Talking about keeping our troops there for another 50 years does not sound like any improvement on the war to anybody that thinks this war isn’t worth it anymore, and that IS a majority.

    The third strike is going to be his age. A lot of people think that he is too old and too frail. The recent gaffs that show him very confused in Iraq, even if it’s just because of fatigue (which I truly think is what happened) and not a “senior moment” would just be the beginning. And I’m sure there would be reminders about just how NOT in control Ronald Reagan was at the end of his term.

    Does any party have a lock? Not a chance.

  17. Mike Johnson says:

    Clinton should quit but I fear the election computers are already rigged to name McCain the winner. The US has shown repeatedly they are not interested in actually counting ballots, and nothing is easier to rig than a computerized election.

    It must be hard for her to admit the Dangling Dong of Destiny has Dicked her out of her life’s ambition and for the good of the Nation and her own Party she should step aside and live without realizing her dream.

    I think either would be a better president than any Bush has ever been, and I am from a Republican family. My grandparents must be spinning in their graves knowing it is the Republican Party that gave the Constitution its final burial.

    How long can we maintain the illusion of being a free country, is the next question we need to ask.

  18. Mister Mustard says:

    >>Talking about keeping our troops there
    >>for another 50 years does not sound like
    >>any improvement on the war to anybody
    >>that thinks this war isn’t worth it anymore.

    At $5000 per second ($144,000,000.00 per year), is there ANYBODY in the US that thinks this war is ‘worth it”?

    Not for another 50 minutes, much less another 50 years. That’s $7,200,000,000.00 just in DIRECT COSTS. The indirect costs will be incalculable.

  19. Ron says:

    That’s why we need to get Ron Paul nominated and elected!

  20. Brian says:

    There’s nothing short of a miracle that can get her the nomination, and her continued running only is serving the Republican party. Why continues to cast praise on McCain is puzzling at best, and the divisive campaign she is running is only hurting Democrat’s chances to take back the White House.

    She needs to concede, bring unity to the party, and let Obama get down to the business of beating McCain.

  21. MikeN says:

    All those zeros really drove home the point. I’d love to have a 50 year war cost 7 billion dollars, but I worry that it would lead to more wars.

  22. MikeN says:

    #15, the point is those are ridiculous arguments Time is making. History and many Democrats will cast her as a villain? History will do no such thing, based on the results of a political campaign. Does history cast JFK as a villain for the dead vote in Chicago, or LBJ for his stolen elections before becoming president? They cant alk all they want about she has no chance, but she has no chance if she doesn’t try.

  23. scumola says:

    My wife and I are Hillary supporters, but since it looks like she can’t win anymore, I’m not sure which way I’ll sway. I’m not all that fond of Obama and his ties with Hollywood and all of the crazy race issues that will come up if/when he wins the presidency and I’m not stupid enough to vote for an old fart like McCain (saw him in public last year and he seems kind of a wuss to me). The only reason that I like Hillary is because when Bill was the Pres, times were good. I got great raises at work, the dot-com boom was in full swing, no major wars that lasted very long. I believe very stongly that Bill will be helping steer the boat from the bedside chats that he and Hillary will have in the White House, but if the Hillary won’t be on the ticket, I’m not sure where to cast my vote. I don’t want to throw away my vote, but I can’t rightly vote for either of the two remaining candidates and I don’t want to throw away my vote.

  24. Mister Mustard says:

    Mikey, Mikey, Mikey. At $5000 a second, how can you go wrong? WAR!!

    Great that on Easter Sunday you’re promoting war, hate, and misunderstanding.

    Mission accomplished!

  25. Mr. Catshit says:

    #5, Benson,

    It looks like you were dreaming again. I did not find ANY poll giving McCain 49%. The national average gives Clinton the lead over McCain 46.6 to 45.5 and McCain a slight edge over Obama, 45.8 to 44.4. That is a statistical dead heat.

    But then the right wing nuts like to make up crap. It sounds so much better than having to live with the bullshit they really live with.


    Hey, the cooking sherry is for cooking, not sipping. I guess Limbaugh is telling his audience again that Kennedy stole his election and Johnson, who had the largest landslide in history, somehow manipulated his wins.


  26. jbenson2 says:

    #25 – I can see why you came up with your name because you are full of it.

    You could not find the Rasmussen Poll? Have you ever heard of Google?

    Read it and weep, buddy!
    Looking ahead to the General Election in November, John McCain continues to lead both potential Democratic opponents. McCain leads Barack Obama 49% to 41% and Hillary Clinton 50% to 42%.

    Badda Bing! Slam Dunk!

    And how about staying on subject for a change?

  27. gregallen says:

    I’m an Obama fan, but I find myself defending Hillary all the time.

    Even I, an average Joe, can think of at least one scenario that Hillary wins this without pissing everybody off: if Obama really screws up.

    (Or they find some career-ending skeleton in his closet.)

    He’s is a relatively inexperiences, relatively un-vetted candidate and this is a real possibility.

    Wouldn’t she look like an idiot if they dropped out of the race and then, next month, Obama self-destructs.

  28. Ah_Yea says:

    It is looking more and more that the reason Obama is a viable candidate is precisely because he is relatively inexperienced, relatively un-vetted, a big question mark.

    He simply doesn’t have much to find out about, and the more we do find out, the more questions arise.

    This is where the real fight begins. McCain has plenty of history while Obama has none. Assuming Obama wins the primary, McCain will probably usurp the “who is ready from day one” against Obama, drawing those independents who bought this line from the Hillary camp into his. Then he will make them feel good because of his fairly liberal (for a republican) social program proposals.

    The Dems have a very rough road ahead.

  29. Ah_Yea says:

    Why else do you think he is on a world tour, talking to everyone who will sit down with him?

    McCain, “I am ready from day one!”

  30. Joshua says:

    McCain leads or is tied in the 2 main daily tracking polls….Rasmussun and Gallop. Both of these polls have been the 2 top predictors for the primaries along with SurveyUSA. The problem with Survey is it’s a robocall poll and they can go off on a tangent if there isn’t enough answered calls.

    This far out the polls are meaningless anyway. Obama is finally coming to be known by those who aren’t of the chattering class as just another politician and since the Rev. Wright uproar his standing with Independents has dropped quite a bit. He now polls 10% less than McCain among that group. Also his favorables have dropped below 50% for the first time since last fall,(47% and 48% with a 42% unfavorable, also a new high for him) though Clinton has by far the most unfavorable’s. McCain is still at 54% favorable.(he has a 36% unfavorable).

    The Democrats need to come up with a solution to this problem as fast as they can. Neither can win outright now. And if Clinton win’s as big as she is showing in Pa. and loses N. Carolina by single digets, she will catch Obama in popular vote.
    The more people see this squabbling, the more McCain looks good to Independents and seniors and white men and that’s just not good for the Democrats.
    Whats weird is that Clinton polls well against McCain, much stronger than Obama, but is second in her party.
    And, after all the fighting, Obama is now only polling 76% with his own party in the General election, while Clinton polls 79% and McCain, who isn’t trusted by the right wing of his party is polling 81% among Republicans and 46% with Independents.

    If things keep going as they are, the Democrats might actually do as the jokesters keep saying and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.


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