Everyone is laughing at eBay nowadays. Years ago it “bought” Skype for a couple of billion dollars, but now it’s being sued by the seller for copyright infringement. Apparently, despite spending billions, eBay bought nothing. It merely licensed the right to use Skype’s technology.

You have to ask, how could eBay have been so incredibly stupid to spend billions of dollars on essentially nothing? Well, it appears that Disney did the exact same thing.

As we’ve all heard by now, Disney bought Marvel for about 4 billion dollars. At first blush it seems like a deal made in heaven. Disney makes movies and superhero movies are hot right now.

However, due to prior contracts Marvel had with other movie studios, Disney is essentially unable to make any Marvel superhero movies for a very long time, maybe even forever.

For example, Sony has a perpetual right to make Spider-Man and Ghost Rider movies.

20th Century Fox has a perpetual right to make movies involving the Fantastic Four, Daredevil, Elektra, Silver Surfer, Kingpin, Dr. Doom, Bullseye, and all of the mutants who have appeared in the X-Men movies.

Universal Pictures has a perpetual right to make Hulk movies. (And if you think Disney can use Marvel characters in its theme parks, think again. Universal has that right, in perpetuity, for its own theme parks.)

So who’s left? Paramount Pictures only has the right to distribute the upcoming Iron Man 2, The Avengers, Captain America, Thor, and Iron Man 3 movies. So in about ten years Disney would be set to go on its own. If superhero movies are still popular in ten years.

And that’s a big if. If Disney bought Marvel for the long haul, in hopes of making Superhero movies way off in the future, I think the plan will fail. Superheroes are big now because the baby boomers grew up with them. That’s why superhero movies are always rated R and hard PG-13. Because they’re made for adults. The adults who grew up with them.

In ten, twenty years no one is going to give a rip about Spider-Man. Much in the same way no one gives a rip about Cowboy and Indian movies. Genres die. It’s a fact of life in Hollywood.

Still, if Disney doesn’t want to wait it can dig deep in Marvel’s vault and release a Doctor Bong movie. How about Forbush Man? Ruby Thursday?

Let’s face it, Disney got screwed.

  1. amodedoma says:

    WTF is wrong with hollywood these days!?!? Seems to me instead of paying writers and getting some new ideas, they’re contantly buying up the rights to comics, cartoons, and remakes. Any wonder that box office numbers are so bad they’re closing cinemas all over the place. Piracy isn’t killing hollywood, it’s the cheapass corporate execs, and the quickbuck philosophy.

  2. jccalhoun says:

    When was the last time there was a hit Spider-man TV show? They keep trying them and they keep failing.
    They may keep failing but,as I said, look at Disney XD’s lineup. Half of it is Marvel cartoons including those failed Spider-Man cartoons. Obviously Disney thinks they have a big enough audience that it is worth airing those failed cartoons instead of their own backlog of cartoons like Ducktails, Darkwing Duck, Rescue Rangers and so on.

    Also, owning Marvel gives them a company with expertise in comics. So rather than letting Gemstone get a cut. Additionally, Boom studios recently licensed a lot of the Pixar properties and is having success with them. I would look for Disney to cancel those contracts and for Marvel to make them so that Disney gets 100% of the profits rather than Boom getting a cut.

  3. pedro says:

    #21 What do you expect from a company lead by Stevereeno. That’s the same mac modus operandi

  4. Mark says:

    I think the analogy to cowboys & Indians is misguided as is the claim that once the baby boomers are gone that kids today will not be interested in these stories.

    1) Part of the reason for the decreased interest of westerns is that the gap between the modern age and the past was becoming too large for young audiences to relate to. Superhero stores generally take place in the modern age and tell contemporary stories.

    2) The superhero genre is all about the character, not the actor playing the character. Peter Parker can always be a high school/college student. If Tobey Maguire is getting too old, they cast a new Peter Parker, but they can’t cast a new John Wayne. He got old and most kids didn’t want to see a 50-year old man riding a horse anymore.

    3) Batman has been around since 1939, that’s enough for 3-4 generations of audiences and is still going strong.

    4)”When was the last time there was a hit Spider-man TV show?” How about now? The Spectacular Spider-Man animated series is a critical and commercial success, with many comparing it on par to Batman The Animated Series. It is currently airing its second season on Disney XD.

    5) Audiences have always loved spectacle and the biggest spectacle in films and television currently come from sci-fi, superhero, and animated story genres. That’s not going to change anytime soon.

    6) As another poster commented, the major reason Disney bought Marvel was for the TV programming, merchandising, and video game rights (a successful video game franchise, like Grand Theft Auto, can be worth a billion dollars). Disney crunched the numbers and decided that $4 Billion was worth it.

    Once you consider all revenue streams, I think Disney made a great deal.

  5. bobbo, not an economist OR an historian says:

    SN==yea, the hair went up on the back of my neck at that headline. Still, Pedro at #16 hit the pro view which you did not address at all. Analyze the pro’s then the con’s and then compare and contrast. Examine only the negatives of a deal, and it looks pretty bad. Examine only the positives, and it looks pretty good. The actual contract had to have what they were buying? And some genius thought it was worth 4 Billion.

    Segue to joke about investing 4 Billion in beer, drinking it, and getting more money back by recycling the aluminum cans.

    The Art of the Deal. The ONLY Super Hero movie I have liked is Iron Man and some parts of the Batman franchise. Yea–adults who grew up with comics, except they never grew up.

  6. jccalhoun says:

    And by the way, when was the last time they made a Flash Gordon movie? Buck Rogers? Oh yeah, those extremely huge and beloved characters died off. Because no no one gives a rat’s ass about them. In the exact same way no one is going to give a rat’s ass about Spider-man in forty years.

    Since Superman is only 10 years younger than Buck Rogers and only 6 years younger than Flash Gordon and Superman just had a movie made about him a few years ago I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that just because a character is old no one cares. Flash Gordon had a tv show just a year or two ago.

  7. pedro says:

    #26 Which was canceled ’cause nobody saw it.

  8. Angel H. Wong says:

    Merchandise royalties, that’s where the money’s at. Don’t forget all the money George Lucas is getting from all those toys, games, shirts, etc.

    In the end, these comic book-based movies are nothing but expensive infomercials nowadays.

  9. Angel H. Wong says:

    #27 Pedro,

    These idiots who live in their ivory towers still think that the best way to remake a classic is to make it a skater/twink themed turd.

    The last really good animated series I saw was Nickelodeon’s Avatar.

  10. jccalhoun says:

    Which was canceled ’cause nobody saw it.

    No the Flash Gordon show was canceled because it sucked. It was terrible. It deserved to be canceled. and its creators to never be allowed to work in the tv industry again.

  11. Breetai says:

    Wow, that explains a lot. Paramount has the Right to Ironman, Thor, Captain America, and the Avengers.

    But Universal Has the rights to Hulk and Hulk was one of the original Avengers and can’t be in the Avengers movies now. Nice Management.

  12. Obvious1 says:

    While it’s true that there are very few Marvel characters left that Disney can tap for movies, this doesn’t mean Disney bought a pig in a poke. Marvel’s contracts with Paramount and others are constructed so that Marvel makes a ton on the backend of each movie as well as a healthy advance – and now all that money goes into Disney’s coffers. Any huge profits Marvel makes on anything goes into the corporate coffers now – Disney’s coffers – so there are still plenty of ways for Disney to monetize their purchase. I wouldn’t worry too much about the Mouse…

  13. Breetai says:

    #27 Pedro
    I saw it. It was produced by the SciFi Channel and was stereotypical SciFi channel Quality.

    I swear that channel exists for the sole purpose of Hollywood elitists dumping money in a place that keeps SciFi from gaining mainstream traction. It’s the only explication for the grade school SciFi effects and kindergarten scripts.

  14. Thomas says:

    While on the surface your premise seems reasonable, there are many possibilities that you might be overlooking:

    1. There are many exhibition rights of which cinematic is only one. What about video, free tv, pay tv, internet…

    2. The rights might include all distribution mediums but not include the creation of TV content such a new children’s series or even made-for-tv movies.

    3. Do the contracts cover worldwide distribution or only domestic?

  15. MikeN says:

    >But Universal Has the rights to Hulk and Hulk was one of the original Avengers and can’t be in the Avengers movies now. Nice Management.

    No, they’re putting them all in. It’s why Robert Downey shows up at the end of The Hulk.

  16. pedro says:

    #30 That was the point. Nobody saw it because it blowed chunks. Even my son hated the thing.

    #33 True. The only successful thing (and I don’t like it) they’ve done is the reboot of Galactica.

    #10 Actually, the re-brand… and now that I think of the explanation, it’s starting to make a little sense, specially since Warner bought DC.

    The re-branding is the second one they make for the defunct Fox Kids, which they bought from Fox and it had a heavy Marvel & DC cartoon line-up.

    They rebranded it as Jetix which also blowed and now they change it again to Disney XD. Funny this re-branding happened a month or so before the Marvel deal announcement.

    So it looks as a haste move to avoid losing Marvel content on their channel. I wonder where the DC content will show up now.

    A lot of money spending with low performance, if you ask me. There has to be more to it.

  17. RSweeney says:

    Surely Disney can call on their pals in Washington and get these contracts nullified.

  18. bkressin says:

    Your post on Disney’s take over of Marvel offers an intriguing argument. I especially liked your analogy to eBay that, “despite spending billions, eBay bought nothing. It merely licensed the right to use Skype’s technology.” I actually cannot think of a better way to explain the take over myself, particularly because of the new developments involving Jack Kirby’s estate. Why Disney would want to buy the rights to characters that have already been made into franchises through other studios does not make much sense, unless of course they had planned to produce future movies themselves, such as Captain America, The Avengers, and Thor.

    You point out that “in about ten years Disney would be set to go on its own”. However, the notices of copy right termination from Jack Kirby’s camp will become effective as soon as 2014 (http://www.bleedingcool.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6068). The validity of the copy right termination of characters co-created by Jack Kirby would not only cause inconvenience for Disney and Marvel but also any film studio that has made movies using Kirby’s characters. Production for The Avengers, Captain America, Thor and Iron Man 3 would have to come to an end. No doubt, Kirby’s heirs are most likely put out about missing out on a piece of the $4 billion Disney paid Marvel, especially since Kirby’s characters are by far the most popular.

    You bring up valid points about superhero movies being geared towards adults, but I have to disagree with you that the super hero genre is dying out. True, it is possible that “in ten, twenty years no one is going to give a rip about Spider-Man”, but that is why remakes and reinventions of old characters can generate so much success. Take the newly franchised Batman as an example. The first Batman was released in 1989 and there is still as much, if not more, buzz and excitement about the Batman Begins series as there was ten years ago for the original film. For the time being it certainly seems that Marvel has become a trophy for Disney to put on the shelf, but as time progresses it could very well find a niche in the Disney brand if approached correctly.

  19. jesusj124y6 says:

    yeah man will still love the comics

  20. Disney’s not dumb, so they must have something up their sleeve…

    Maybe the boomers grew up with the comics, but Generation Y and the current generation have grown up with the cartoons, and even though a lot of the movies are rated PG-13, kids still see them today. So that means there will be superhero fans for quite a few years to come. The thing that will stop hero movies from being made is if people get sick of seeing Peter Parker being bitten by a Spider (eg, 2012 Spider-Man reboot).