In early 2001 the Federal Emergency Management Agency listed what it believed were the three most likely disasters to face the United States in coming years. One was a terrorist attack on New York City. The second was a hurricane-spawned flood of New Orleans.

Kind of makes you want to know what the third one is, doesn’t it? The third is a major earthquake in San Francisco.

The first two have come to pass in under five years. And in both cases, the post-mortems have had two main elements: How could this have been prevented, and could it have been handled better once it occurred?

If FEMA goes three for three in its predictions — if the Big One rattles San Francisco — will we be ready?

The belief that another major quake is coming is so commonplace that it even has a nickname: The Big One.

Don’t mean to make you nervous, John.



  1. BigNetRat says:

    It seems the State of Louisiana and the City of New Orleans plan for dealing with FEMAs prediction was to hope that if it ever did happen FEMA would have a plan. Those people were let down by thier state and local officals, not the Feds.

  2. Greg says:

    you’re the one who lives out there, John. Does it make YOU nervous?

  3. meetsy says:

    “the BIG ONE” doesn’t really worry people who live in CA. Sure, it’s coming…but our building codes are strict….(my house has seismic tiedowns every 16 inches, boxed sheerwalls on all the internal walls, and tiedowns to hold the roof on, etc. No unreinforced masonry, and my gas main has an automatic shutoff valve. I have three weeks suppy of food, flashlights, candles, camp stove, and several gallons of water. We have a basic emergency plan. What’s to worry about?
    The earth shakes daily. http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/latest.htm
    It’s just a fact of life.

  4. Bob Stone says:

    There a number of low probablility events that would be much more devestating than the New Orleans flood: La Palma in the Canaries would cause a huge east coast mega-tsunami, a volcanic eruption in the Cascades, Mt Ranier, could wipe out Seattle.

    And all those $$ going to Iraq for a war based on hearsay….

  5. Tomas42064 says:

    I blame Ronald Reagan and the thought of less government so lets cut off services like less money for civil things like rebuilding roads and rails and waterways. The hurricane we can handle but the flooding was a disaster we could of managed. Civil defense was a priority in the 1950’s that could of handled a number three hurricane. The knowledge and know-how was there to handle this situation and I know they asked for the money but the money and leadership never came nor the better communication lines and water handling levies and pumps. We had the time but we did not have the leadership and the money. The “Trickle Down Economy” was a little to slow and bush has turned it into a “piss on you” type of economy.
    I did work for the Corps of Engineers so I know what we asked for but did not get.

    And remember we needed a few good men in New Orleans but they were sent to Iraq thanks to bushy.

    I have been a little harsh and throw blame for the situation in New Orleans at the president because frankly I do not like his Alfred E. Newman smirk and his ties with Halliburton and the oil companies who stand to make a huge profit in New Orleans.
    I feel that I should apologies to our government for not being there when they should have been there.
    They boasted how our government could get into Iraq and mobilize our national guard into this sleek “I can fix Iraq in forty days and forty nights” type of thingy.

  6. I think if the “big one” does strike, building codes be damned. We try to think in terms of what we have experienced but if a 9.3+ hits it will be devastating with very few buildings standing, especially if it hits in the right place. But I also think CA’s emergency services are probably expecting it more, and better prepared (and trained) to handle it. And, I hate to bring a political light to it, but I think old Schwarz’ might get a bigger spotlight.

  7. James Hill says:

    So does this mean FEMA did something right?

  8. Thomas says:

    On the contrary Tomas, Reagan’s ideal of a smaller government was absolutely right (even if his implementation wasn’t perfect.) It’s too bad the current conservatives in power could not live up to Reagan’s ideals. You are directing your blame at the wrong entity. The people of New Orleans were primarily let down by the New Orleans city government and the government of Louisiana. It is the states that should have the power in this country, not the Federal government. With that power, comes a responsibility to their constituents. A weaker Federal government makes it harder for the Federal government to abuse their power and keeps the power closer to the people.

    Thus, what was stopping Louisiana from starting a civil defense effort? What was stopping New Orleans from seeing that a hurricane was about to strike within a week and helping their own people evacuate? It was the state of Louisiana that chose not to spend more money on reinforcing the levees. It was the state of Louisiana and the city of New Orleans that spent millions to keep the Saints rather than spending the money on their poverty, crime and yes, the levee system.

    The “trickle down” economy that you so hate is one of the primary reasons why the current economy even after a hurricane wipes out one of largest ports in the US, is still going strong.

    Federal aid works best when the people that need the help first learn to help themselves. Compare the actions of the New York leadership on 9/11 with the New Orleans leadership during the hurricane. The people of New Orleans should first be asking why their city government failed them. Then they should ask why their state government failed them. Only after all of that, should they then direct criticism towards the Federal government.

  9. Tomas42064 says:

    The water is federal property.

  10. Ed Campbell says:

    James, in early 2001, FEMA was still an independent agency — NOT under the control of Homeland Insincerity.

  11. Tomas42064 says:

    The Buck Stops Here
    The North won the civil war because the Federal Government realized that if they controlled all the roads and waterways they could win the war.
    So today at the present time the Federal Government controls the airways, railways, roadways and the waterways, just in case we have another civil war or we need to control the way troops are moved across the country. If they control it they need not ask anyone or any state permission to pass through.
    Those are facts that will not change.
    The Corps of Engineers is part of the Defense Department and is paid by them. The Defense Department divvy’s out the moneys that are budgeted to the Corps of Engineers for flood control.
    Again it is “We the People” who are responsible for not building or renewing the way our cities are protected by water, not the lobbyists.
    So when you vote in the next election place my name in the box because it is “we the people” that are in charge of this country.
    Take Care,
    The Buck Stops Here
    Tomas

  12. James Hill says:

    So FEMA did something right during Bush’s administration, but before Bush got his hands on it?

    You’d think that if the left can put this idea out there then they could also understand the concept that Clinton botched the economy, but the effect wasn’t noticable to all until 2001.

    Wait. I forgot my talking points. Clinton = Good. Bush = Bad. Nevermind.

  13. Ed Campbell says:

    You really should try reading something besides the Rove cathechism, James. The point was — that FEMA functioned for decades as an independent organization dedicated to emergency response. When independence was removed, when it was shoveled into a new [and expanding] bureaucracy, no one — Right or Left — should have been surprised by failures.

    Does Bush get the credit for the screw-up? Well, there used to be Republican and Democrat presidents who took responsibility for what happened on their watch. And, sadly, there always have been acolytes who would deny it.


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