PERKEL SEZ:
I’ll take you on John. I’m willing to bet 2 things:
1) Hillary takes the Dem nomination.
2) Hillary wins a landslide victory.
And ….
My more longshot predictions:
1) McCain wins the Republican nomination. (Because like Bob Dole – it’s his turn.)
2) McCain picks Lieberman for VP.
Almost 1 million people whose votes don’t count went out to vote for Hillary. Yes, Florida voters might be naive locals, but they represent a cross section of the naive locals that make up the American voter.
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DVORAK RESPONDS:
Saying McCain winning the nomination is a longshot prediction shows to me that you have not been following any threads of reality, which is ironic since you run the Church of Reality. And, as for Florida… it’s a state of retirees and strippers.
The bet is simple with the terms of the bet to be discussed privately on an Indian reservation. My position is that any Republican will win the Presidency in 2008. Now that you bring up the landslide concept I’ll make a second bet if you can define “landslide.” And since you parroted that ludicrous idea that Lieberman (already a loser as VP candidate) would for some perverse reason be the VP chosen by McCain, I’ll make a third bet and give you odds on that one.
PERKEL RESPONDS:
Actually the Lieberman part is the long shot. I agree than McCain will be the nominee because for Republicans, it’s his turn. Just like in 1996 it was Bob Dole’s turn. I’m also going to predict that one week from today (Feb 6th) that Obama drops out of the race.
The Republicans might win if Obama is the candidate. He has the shortest resume of all the candidates and even though liberals will give him an affirmative action vote, the Republicans won’t. If Hillary wins, which I’m predicting, then Hillary clobbers McCain. He’s admitted, as Romney point out, that he doesn’t know anything about the economy and he sees the Iraq war lasting 50-100 years.
Obama.
#1
Some lone gun nut Republican will assassinate Obama before that ever happens. He will be characterized as a disturbed individual without political affiliation by CNN and Fox news. MSNBC will be the only ones to cover that he is a Bush campaign volunteer and conservative political blogger.
That is my prediction about Obama.
Lieberman already said no.
Define Landslide. Obama has a better change of that than Hillary. To many people hate Hillary for her to win in a Landside. She more likely drive up the Republican numbers
Are you aware that Edwards is dropping out, and most of his supporters are likely to support Obama than Clinton?
mperkel
If I were you I would go so far as to say that Hillary Clinton will be our next president of the United States.
#3
Actually, I gotta disagree. The current state of the electorate is that if some one super decisive like Hillary is the candidate, any extra republican voting that she causes will be more than offset by Democrats (like me for instance) enjoying that she pisses you off so much.
I bet her inauguration speech has a higher domestic violence rate than the super bowl.
Earlier today Bill Gates said he was not interested in running. But maybe you could persuade him to change his mind John?
Hillary as President? HA! Maybe in an parallel universe.
Obama as President? Nah – Doesn’t have that “Morgan Freeman” look, so off to that parallel universe, again. 😉
Seems the US is destined for another bout of Republicans in office.
Cheers
Perkel Responds:
Actually the longshot part is the McCain/Lieberman prediction. If Hillary is the nominee Dems win in landslide. However if Obama is the nominee then Republicans have the advantage.
I think Romney get the nod on the Rep. side and takes McCain on as VP and they freight train the Dems. The thought of Clinton (as corrupt as they come) or Obama ( can you say lack of experience) just scares the hell out of me.
As a conservative and no fan of the dems and their Osama Obama or Hellary delusions, I have to admit that whomever ends up winning, the voters are going to be the biggest losers. How’s that for optimism when the only two choices we’ll have will be bad/bland ones?
IMHO-
Dem ticket: Obama/Richardson
Rep ticket: McCain/Gingrich
#3 has good points worth elaborating:
-Politicians lie, but I have seen the Lieberman’s answer that he wouldn’t accept VP nomination from McCain. It was very strong and his mood was clear: he’ll support McCain but not cross party line (despite being independent now) under any circumstances. Find the clip online and you’ll be convinced too.
-If Hillary is nominated the only possible result is extremely tight win for either side. So tight that the recounts and legal fights are almost a certainty. Hatred for her will carry 50% for anyone opposing her in general elections but anti-Republican vote will get her the other 50% without a dime spent…
My prediction:
Hillary vs. McCain
Hillary wins if she gets Obama to be VP, by hair thin margin.
McCain wins if he gets A.Keys as VP and Hillary does not get Obama – by hair thin margin.
(With Obama and B.Clinton recent activity race will be a hot button issue, there is no going back…)
Any other combination: toss a coin.
In any case, there will be recounts and lawsuits and Supreme Court will be involved.
Lets not forget McCain’s age and health will be a concern. If he wins the Republican nomination which is not a guarantee at this point, his VP choice will be the most important because if isn’t someone people can envision in the presidency then he will lose.
Over the last 7 years, I’ve learned what it’s like to come to really loathe a president. I’m pretty sure that Hillary has approximately the same effect on a significant portion of the country as George Bush has on me. I don’t fully understand the reasons why so many people seem to hate Hillary, but I recognize the feelings that are out there.
A lot of Democrats see Hillary as the “safe” choice over Obama, but I think the safest bet with Hillary is that her presidency would lead to 4 more years of bitterly divisive politics in Washington.
Obama wins by a snort
Romney can’t let a buck pass
Clinton picks Bill for VP
McCain goes to War
Perkel already loses since Lieberman states he is not interested in VP: http://www.drudgereportarchives.com/dsp/search.htm?searchFor=Lieberman
Maybe the Republicans will run a Romney/Cheney ticket?
Your position is that any Republican will win in 2008? Hmmm, sounds to me like you know more about the Republican’s electronic vote tampering/hacking plans than you’ve disclosed so far.
The Republicans’ best chance is if Hillary wins the nomination. There about 40% of the electorate that wouldn’t vote for Hillary if she were running against an inanimate carbon rod. All the Republicans have to do to beat Hillary is run someone who can draw a decent percentage of the sloppy undecided middle. Sloppy middle Dems think they like McCain, but I suspect if he gets the nomination, it’ll be touch and go.
Gulliani was the Republican’s best bet (easiest appeal to the middle), but he’s gone.
In any event, I can’t see a blowout with Hillary as the nominee.
Now, while there isn’t 10 cents worth of difference in the positions of Hillary and Obama (“I’m the candidate of change”,”No I am!”) Obama has the advantage of having to hammer his head against the wall of Hillary Haters. On the other hand, he has to deal with hush hush race issues, the magnitude of which won’t really be known until Americans cast their ballots and a comparison between exit polls and actual voting can be performed.
In any event, even with Obama the candidate, I can’t see a blowout. But I wouldn’t necessarily bet against a blowout in a race with Obama.
But a blowout if Hillary is running? Not a chance. I’d take some of that betting action!
Well, it does look like Clinton will get the nod. Plus, its almost certain the way Bush has handled things. That the Democrats will win the Presidency. But will Clinton who is either loved or hated. How will she do in a already divided congress?? I would prefer someone with a more middle ground mindset who could get more accomplished.
With Hillary I look for another 4 years of bickering. Actually that may happen anyway.
x McCain/Romney – safe bet, most likely to roll back Bush’s fatherland concept. A centralist ticket while still appealing to conservatives.
_ Clinton or Obama with Edwards as VP – Radical change which I think will sink them. They will change the fatherland concept to a motherland concept and hence make a nanny state just like France is.
Ok, listen up. Assuming Hillary wins the presidency, here is the future. In 2 years, the Dems will loose both houses of congress because the Republicans and Independents dislike Hillary so much that they want her powers curtailed.
And if Hillary isn’t the best president since Lincoln, then she will loose the presidency in 2012 to a Republican. 4 years from now, Republican held congress and presidency.
Thanks, Hillary!
Perkel’s beliefs are typical of Californians who isolate themselves from the people. They all think Hillary will win and that marijuana is just around the corner from being legalized. I cannot tell you how much money I make on political bets around here. It’s astonishing. For the last two years I have been telling everyone that it will be McCain with probably Guiliani as the VP although it’s possible that Rudy’s poor showing may result in ROmney as VP. Guiliani will be the Attorney General or Secretary of State. You watch. Take notes.
People, Obama can not win the Presidency. History makes it clear. You can not win without taking, at least, one Southern state in the general election. Obama is not competitive in even one southern state. Hillary has good prospects in at least two. It’s time to face the facts and move on.
#25 I believe Obama can win the presidency. Even with the GOP slime machine directed at Obama he can win. The GOP slime machine needs a tune-up.
I thought Obama won S Carolina? Isn’t that a southern state? However, I’m surprised he didn’t do better in Florida but Hillary voters would vote for Obama if he won the nomination. That’s where I’m at.
i pity the FOOL that will become the NEXT president.
AS to Florida…
You MAY have alot of PISSED OFF Old folk. As the last Social security increase for THIS YEAR, is 2.3%, compared to GAS which went up 150%, and min wage at 9-10%..
Insted of just letting REGISTERED demo and reps, VOTE…they should of had a trial vote for the WHOLE state.
I agree with #20 (including the comment about the carbon rod). Right now the Republicans are in a mess but I think that having Hillary as the nominee will be a godsend for them to motivate their base and they’ll certainly pull out all the stops for a huge smear campaign (and lets face it, they have tons of ammunition on H). If H is nominated, John is right, any Republican can win.
If Obama is nominated… he stands a very good chance of winning it all, that is it will be his to loose. He’s attracting a lot of undecideds and based on what happened in Iowa he successfully motivated lot people that don’t traditionally vote (Gen X & Y). He’s attracting blacks in huge numbers which could be a deciding factor in the south and he’s an extremely charismatic speaker and this could help get his supporters to vote in large numbers.
On the republican side, the evangelicals won’t unite fully for any of the leading republicans… so there is a chance. Also, they like sniping at each other… I’d love to see THEM implode!
Regardless of who wins though, it’s going to be a lot of fun to watch the show!
Hillary, Obama, McCain, All hacks, who will do nothing but tweak a broken system. Everyone better get ready to make $5 an hour and watch as the elite flee to other countries where the economy is good. What is it gonna take to wake people up? Ron Paul for Prez
The country is so tired and pissed off over what the Republican administration has done over the last 8 years that they will vote in large enough numbers for ANY Democrat to insure his or her election.