No, not holiday party, next day hangovers where the phrase “nothing happened, really” is heard uttered to spouses. Nor is it open-the-wallet-time for the brat’s presents. It’s that perenial fav, Predictions For Next Year!
Come on, one and all! Let’s hear what your predictions are for businesses around the tech world! Don’t be shy, now. Everybody’s doing it! And to kick things off, here are two articles by the same guy. One on who’s on the downslope and one on who’s riding to the top. Can’t say I agree with all of them, but they’re a start.
Forecasting Declines for Sony, Google, IBM, Oracle, RIM and Apple
Forecast ’06: Major Tech Trends and Companies to Watch
Actually, I’d like to hear some longer term predictions on universal formats and how they will change how we use computers. You know, being able to read an arbitrary word processing document, spreadsheet or even presentation 10, 15 or 20 years from now. Or switch platforms or applications seamlessly. Can that even happen in today’s market?
Two contenders are OpenDocument, which has been approved by OASIS and is already on it’s way through ISO, and Microsoft’s own MOOX which is about to get sent to ECMA.
Whether OpenDocument or MOOX, a truly universal format unhooks us from specific applications, platforms and vendors, something that has not happened before or since Mosaic and HTML+HTTP hit the net. Getting rid of file format incompatibilities can mean no more forced upgrades, at least not through the file format anyway, and an exit from the Wintel Treadmill and it’s cycle of disruptions that most accept as part of life.
Could a universal format really happen? If so, what are the rammifications for end users or work sites? If not, why not?
– Apple will introduce a new iPod and downplay the lack of success video downloads have compared to music downloads.
– The Podcasting fad will die, with only those that can get sponsored remaining (good news for Twit fans). The Wiki and Blog fads will gradually lose steam as well.
– Microsoft will introduce a technology that rhymes with “gonad”, and it will give Network Administrators everywhere more time to not do work.
– Microsoft will also push (again) home media distribution through media extenders, and use this as the “primary reason” someone should keep waiting for a 360 when the PS3 comes out. It won’t work, which is sad, because I’m using my 360 for this purpose and its great.
– Speaking of Sony, the PS3 release will be big, but not big enough, giving Sony only a slim lead in the console wars against Microsoft by the end of the year. The lack of a noticible advantage given by using Blu-Ray and 1080p support will be blamed for the “lack” of success.
And the big one…
– Microsoft will release Vista on time, and there will be a huge spending spree on new hardware in the corporate sector during ’06 Q4 and ’07 Q1.