Eavesdrop on a Conversation About the Stock Market

Published on September 16th, 2008

Posted by John C Dvorak in Dvorak-Horowitz Podcast

Here is a conversation I had with Andrew Horowitz about today’s weird stock market. Horowitz runs the Disciplined Investor website and is one of the few personal money managers who I respect. We are going to do some podcasts together for investors who want to think for themselves. But more importantly we will be deconstructing the various investment sites. This chat is not produced and presented as-is for anyone who wants to listen in.

click ► to listen:

Right click here and select ‘Save Link As…’ to download the mp3 file.

34 users responded in " Eavesdrop on a Conversation About the Stock Market "

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# 1 laserone said, on September 17th, 2008 at 12:29 am

Thanks for posting this. Not to get off-topic but I love that tech allows us to do this kind of thing. For me, listening in on a conversation like this is great (depressing subject-matter aside).

# 2 Springheel Jack said, on September 17th, 2008 at 1:32 am

I highly recommend the book “What Are Stocks Really Worth?”:

http://www.analyticalbooks.com/

# 3 Chris Mac said, on September 17th, 2008 at 3:20 am

If your serious about discussing this, I may manage to engage my brain.

Disclaimer: I feel that corporations should not have the rights of an individual in the USA.

# 4 Chris Mac said, on September 17th, 2008 at 3:33 am

Oh right.. How does all this happen in a September without blaming the terrorists?

# 5 Finance said, on September 17th, 2008 at 4:06 am

Woody Allen’s comment in the 1060′2 was that a “Stock Broker is a professional that invests your money till its all gone”
Just the names and titles change
In the case as well they become even more unscrupulous with time

# 6 Higghawker said, on September 17th, 2008 at 4:24 am

Thanks for the listen John. These are very troubling financial times!

# 7 Aaorn said, on September 17th, 2008 at 5:25 am

If we had more Reporters like John, we would be much better off as a nation!

# 8 bobbo said, on September 17th, 2008 at 5:51 am

How does the “authority” to make these deals pass from Congress to some members of the Administration? I thought only Congress could pass spending bills and what else is a “loan” if money for such contingencies is not in the original funding/authorization?

Further, even if that is all ok somehow, who in the world can do the due diligence to properly evaluate these deals? That process normally takes months with back and forth. Not “overnight.” The difference between x or y Billions of Dollars guaranteeing a or b Billions of Dollars of underperforming debt is a swing of Billions of dollars.

In the end, all this mismanagement/bad regulation will result in devalued dollar.

More mystical than all these manueverings is when the rest of the world will pull the trigger. How many years in a row can the Euro and Yuan gain value against the dollar before the dollar becomes wallpaper?

The dismal science.

# 9 Lou said, on September 17th, 2008 at 6:07 am

5 months left for W.
What else can he screw up ?

# 10 Bryan Carney said, on September 17th, 2008 at 6:21 am

@8: The FED isn’t an agency of the US Govt. I’ll play smartass to your righteous indignation.

# 11 bobbo said, on September 17th, 2008 at 6:37 am

#10–Bryan==you do understand what a “?” means?===it asks a question. Questions are asked to receive information. Hard to be indignant when asking for info. So, whats the FED==and if its not a gov agency, how does it commit governmental funds? etc.

Listened to the rest of the audio and now I will get indignant. There are lies, damn lies, statistics, and then stock market analysis. I felt I was listening to some astrologer with the market “singing” to me.

I love experts who are great at explaining all the intricacies of what happened last year/last month/yesterday. But the hallmark of real knowledge, how predictive is the song that is song???? Not so much. Where shades, you won’t get blinded by the pretty lights.

# 12 JimD said, on September 17th, 2008 at 6:39 am

bobo, Bush considers Himself His Exhalted Highness who Talks with God, and has no need of a Congress, and considers our Constitution “Just a God-damned Piece of Paper”, and “our” Congress REFUSES TO IMPOSE THE DISIPLINE OF IMPEACHMENT, so Bush continues his BULL IN A CHINA SHOP RAMPAGING !!!

and Lou, Don’t ask “What else can he screw up ?” – Bush will show us, and it won’t be pretty !!!

# 13 bobbo said, on September 17th, 2008 at 7:03 am

#12–Jim==yea, I’d like to see the media get him on record as to the virtue of these bailouts and how he thru Graham is not directly responsible for this in relaxing the regulations.

Yes, we can also blame Clinton, but all such charges would redouble to Bush who had years to fix the errors of Clinton.

Yes “Government is Bad” so lets deregulate and when capitalism subcumbs to greed as a DIRECT result, lets bail out the CEO’s and keep their golden parachutes in place.

Note the regulated Banks are the ones buying the stock of the de-regulated Brokerage Houses?

More common than over regulation is deregulation/lack of enforcement leading to greater harm than ever caused by over regulation.

So–republicans are the party that cheat the people to favor the very rich, the dems are the party that cheat the people to favor the middle class and poor. As long as you are going to be lied to and cheated, where do you want the benefits to fall?

# 14 Paddy-O said, on September 17th, 2008 at 7:10 am

#8 “How does the “authority” to make these deals pass from Congress to some members of the Administration?”

The Constitution gave the sole right to coin money to the Congress. Congress gave away this right…

Strictly speaking they can’t do this (see line item veto for example).

# 15 Springheel Jack said, on September 17th, 2008 at 7:21 am

Well, what do you expect when you have corrupt old grifters like Barney Frank and Chris Dodd running banking in the House and the Senate?

# 16 Mister Mustard said, on September 17th, 2008 at 7:33 am

#11 – Bobster

>>–Bryan==you do understand what a “?” means?
>>===it asks a question.

Yes===,but ==you== have the discomfiting habit of ==putting== a =”?”= at the ==end== of a declarative =sentence=. ‘No=one” can tell whether it’s a ==statement== or a ===question===.

====You==== should have a =copyeditor= check your =posts= before you ===post=== them.

They might be more intelligible.

# 17 J said, on September 17th, 2008 at 7:33 am

Look JCD and his little podcast has caused the market to drop another 340 points. LOL

# 18 J said, on September 17th, 2008 at 7:34 am

Good luck everyone! It is going to be a fun ride.

# 19 JimR said, on September 17th, 2008 at 7:56 am

There’s no such thing as a bear market. It’s ALWAYS bull.

# 20 JimR said, on September 17th, 2008 at 8:05 am

Market tip heard in July 2008….

Oil will never drop below $100 a barrel.

# 21 John C Dvorak said, on September 17th, 2008 at 8:13 am

Worse than that a lot of these fakes on Wall Street were predicting $200 and “never again see 100.” They’ll come up with more BS when it settles in at $65 or less.

# 22 Mr. Jihad said, on September 17th, 2008 at 8:37 am

John, I’m waiting for the ‘toilet paper’ strategy. They’ll make barrels half their size with no change in price (and still call them barrels).

Then of course, in a few years they’ll come out with double barrels. More economical, you know.

# 23 Anonymous said, on September 17th, 2008 at 9:04 am

# 24 Bill said, on September 17th, 2008 at 9:14 am

Very interesting! I am more convinced than ever that the Stock Market and ‘investing’ in general is nothing more than gambling at the biggest casino ever…

You know if you really study CRAPS and learn how to play the odds you will have a better chance at getting ahead. At least you can calculate what they are.

I guess the only sure thing is to invest in yourself and grow some kind of business.

Wait till November! WOW!

# 25 ArianeB said, on September 17th, 2008 at 9:19 am

Oil should be at around $110 a barrel. $140 was an overreaction, $90 is an under reaction. This extreme volatility in oil prices has been going on for the past 3 years since world crude oil production has stagnated at 74 million barrels per day.

Gold is jumping in price today. That’s a typical fall back when the market gets tough.

# 26 Montanaguy said, on September 17th, 2008 at 9:57 am

Stocks, bonds, long-short quant funds, implosion, blah,blah,blah
I’m just preparing for the singularity:

http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun08/6306

# 27 Mr. Jihad said, on September 17th, 2008 at 10:36 am

ArianeB, If oil was $50/ barrel, they would still be making a nice profit.

# 28 Brendal said, on September 17th, 2008 at 12:32 pm

I don’t think you need a Horowitz to tell you that Mattress of America seems to be the wisest investment choice now…

# 29 ECA said, on September 17th, 2008 at 1:11 pm

BACKING corps, is stupid.
They arent being HELD responsible for their OWN actions.
BIG CEO’s can RAID a corp, and run off with the money, and the Gov. Bails them out??

Very few corps are being regulated..EVEN when they are, they are getting around the regulations.

# 30 ArianeB said, on September 17th, 2008 at 1:22 pm

#27 Oil has nothing to do with “profit” its about supply and demand. Since February, supplies have been declining. Total world exports are down.

This caused the dramatic jump in price this spring, and the resulting dramatic jump in gas prices.

June hits, people scale back on vacations, gas demand declines. Reports of how much of a decline come out just before the july margin call, and everybody sells. Speculators trying to ride the oil jump, lose money.

Supplies and exports continue to decline especially Mexico, Russia and Nigeria, but so does demand. The number of people burned in July is keeping money out. Gustav and Ike have caused gas to go up again, and yet oil futures fall still. This weird anomaly can’t last forever.

# 31 ECA said, on September 17th, 2008 at 1:30 pm

So many of these companies have FORGOTTEN, how a company NEEDS to be run.
ASK ENRON..
“I didnt know they were doing that??”
IS NOT something a CEO should be saying.
It was the OLD way that if someone Quit/fired the manager of that section would NEED to take over that position until it was filed. Insted, they work the other OVERWORKED employees to fill up the spot.
OVERTIME, should be a special thing, and only used When things hit a wall and you cant FILL a position fast enough. If a company has OVERTIME a good amount, its easier to hire 1-2 extra people..
In retail it was ALWAYS have 1 extra person, incase things got busy.. NOT ANY MORE. They would rather 1 person LESS, and save a little money. (check your nearest stores, in the evenings. cant find ANYONE on the floor to help.) It used to be, that they would hire people that had a little knowledge of the sections they were in..Hardware had someon that KNEW how to hammer a nail, sports, had a person that knew how to FISH, and so forth.. NOW you have KIDS that have no experience, except FISHING in HL2..

# 32 ECA said, on September 17th, 2008 at 2:12 pm

#30,
I would suggest you look into the Commodities market structure, and SEE what is happening..

EVEN the DOW, has said that there is a HOLE in the commodities exchange and OIL corps are using it.

YOu will know when to JUMP by watching the owners.

# 33 ECA said, on September 17th, 2008 at 2:14 pm

ALSO,
something to NOTE…
That SOMEHOW, oil goes down this time of year.
Its also the TIME OF YEAR, that the COLA(cost of living allowance) is estimated.

# 34 campton-stock market investing said, on October 14th, 2008 at 2:10 am

Very interesting…

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