Pollster on day off
USATODAY.com – Gallup defends results against MoveOn.org attack
This blog has already discussed polling issues and now people with money are getting concerned. This could, in fact, be a watershed year for pollsters.
Things change in this country and methodology is one of them. The Google page rank system, for example, was a casualty of blogging and other changes online.
Right now all the evidence suggests that Bush is way ahead in all the meaningful polls. The debates may change all that and an adjustment may cover up problems with polls. We may never know if the polling system is broken. It might be.
Polling works a lot better when everyone signs on. With pesky phone calls and annoying pollsters everywhere, skewing is bound to happen. Also people now openly lie to pollsters. I guarantee it since I often do myself, as a gag.
“[W]ay ahead”?
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm
If one ignores the controversial Gallup polls, it appears that it’s neck and neck. Yes, Bush is generally in the lead, but the most recent poll in the above-cited listed has Kerry up by one. It seems “way ahead” isn’t an accurate description.
However, in general, I have to say the methodology of most pollsters in the age of caller-id and cell phones seems incredibly problematic. I would call it more likely “broken” than any other alternative.
While I don’t know how accurate the results will end up being, it’s interesting to see the various steps that Zogby, for one, is taking to get a better representation of voter sentiment. I wish more polling firms would follow suit and come up with some new methods. Reliance on straight-up phone calls already appears antiquated.